Road Bike, Cycling Forums banner
1 - 20 of 30 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,422 Posts
Can agree..

terzo rene said:
Here is my podium prediction

1. Basso
2. Ullrich @ 1:18
3. The Floyd @ 3:47

then
Vino
Valverde
Leipheimer
Mancebo

but the crystal ball is cloudy after the top 3.
I can agree with your top 3, though I'm torn as to whether or not Basso will win. I'd put it more like:

1. Ullrich
2. Landis
3. Basso

Got to remember, I'd love to see Basso do the double, Tour is TT-centric this year, which plays into the hands of Landis and Ullrich, who have both shown good TT form thus far (Landis winning just about every TT he's entered, and Ullrich taking the long course TT in the Giro). Not really any legendary big climbing days either, so it will be hard for Basso to shake Ullrich in the mountains this year, plus Jan is going to actually have a team to work for him, and only him this year. We'll see though.

Then for me... I'd like to see.

Popovych
Valverde (if he can finish)
Leipheimer
Hincapie
Botero
Mancebo

and then a few others in there.
 

·
Resident Dutchbag
Joined
·
11,941 Posts
spookyload said:
1. Jan
2. Basso
3. Vino or Kloden
4. Mayo
No Mayo in the top ten this year, although he did reasonably well in the Wallon classics and might be getting back in shape, the TdF is too TT centered for him to be a contender. I'd like to see him win a stage though, attacking climbers were sorely missed in the Giro now let's see some action in the Tour. :)
 

·
Cannot bench own weight
Joined
·
4,298 Posts
Basso for the Double. Ullrich in third. A lesser known in second (similar to what happened in 2004 with Kloden).

I predict top 10s from Vladimir Karpets and Valverde from Illes Balears, and Landis as the only American in the top 10.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
15,996 Posts
I'm really cheering for Ullrich this year. But my money's on Basso.
Won't be able to keep the form up, no big climbing days, blah, blah, blah, he showed what he's made of in the Giro, and I think it's pretty clear it's of sterner stuff than Jan. People wondered "Will he be able to take the reins without Lance to lead him up the mountains?" Clearly, he can. He may not win the time trials, but I don't think Ullrich will take more than 1 sec / km out of him, and bar 1996-7, Jan's never had a tour without at least 1 not-so-hot day.

Even with Jan having a team to back him, CSC is stronger, more well-drilled, and above all more honestly commited to helping Basso win.

I'm pretty sure Landis will podium -- he's become a TT monster, and he can hang with nearly anyone on a climb.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
42 Posts
1. Basso
2. Lance--He will come out of retirement 10 lbs over-weight and still take second, just to have the satisfaction of beating Jan one more time.
3. Vino
6. Jan

I think Basso will win with ease. Jan has not had a big win in a GC in years and has learned how to fight and maintain 2 or 3rd. After years of losing to Lance, it will be hard to come back with a winner's edge at his age. Basso has 4 weeks to rest and with the grand tours being 20-22 stages and the reality is that 6-9 of the stages are what ultimatley determine the winner, I think Ivan is doing the double.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
238 Posts
Ullrich by a rim width...

1. Ullrich - he and his team are probably stronger than they look.
2. Basso - Just to make it interesting he's second. I'm also not convinced he's that much stronger this year than last - still damn tough though.
3. Landis
4. Menchov - liked his form in the vuelta - on his own, decent TTer. Hope he isn't dirty.
5. Leipheimer - no team to speak of since he isn't an overrated, elderly german rider.
6. Popo - holds his own in the mountains.
7. Hincapie - stage win, strong TTs help him enter the top 10.
8. Vino - will be hamstrung by all this crap, can't win without his team.
9. Botero - he'll crack eventually.
10. Mancebo - needs more mountains to place higher.

Against my better judgement I'm calling Mayo for a stage win and begging him to transfer to CSC. It seems like the only teams that can go roleur with CSC for 3 weeks are TMob and Disco so I would expect Disco to have >2 stage wins and TMob to place Ulle well for the win.
Stage win for Flecha.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
608 Posts
I think this Tour will be like most Tours: It will promise a lot and deliver a little. One of two cases occur. 1) Ullrich wins the ITTs comfortably and follows Basso up the three mountaintop finishes, losing very little time. 2) Ullrich shows that he is past it and he gains very little in the ITTs and gets dropped decisively by Basso while climbing. Either Ullrich or Basso wins with relative ease.

My money is on Ullrich, but pulling for Ullrich is like pulling for David Coulthard in Formula 1. Some people are always unlucky, so I will not be surprised if Ullrich blows it somehow.

Right now it looks good for Ullrich. He has to have left the Giro feeling very confident. While not being in top form and taking it easy during the first half of the 50K ITT, he easily beat a Basso going all out and in raging form.

Basso took six and a half minutes out of Simoni in non-TT stages. The Tour has half as many uphill finishes, the climbing is much more moderate than the Giro, and Ullrich is much better than Simoni at that type of climbing. Keeping a high pace to wear out little climbers may work against Simonis and Cunegos, but it doesn't work against a solid guy like Ullrich. I do not see Basso destroying Ullrich in the mountains.

Third place is a toss up between Landis, Vino, Mancebo, and Evans. I don't think Leipheimer TTs well enough to make it into that group. Popovych or Menchov could surprise.

1) Ullrich
2) Basso
3) Landis
4) Vino
5) Menchov
6) Evans
7) Mancebo
8) Popovych
9) Leipheimer
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
650 Posts
Evans for the win (yes im an aussie,and mtber) Basso in 2nd, Ullrich 3rd. Robbie wins the sprint and moureu in the climbers.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
51 Posts
1. Basso- If he can hold his superb form he should have no trouble taking it.
2. Ullrich- depends on Basso's form after Giro win, Jan's climbing.
3. Valverde- course doesn't suite him, but after great spring, you can't count him out.
4. Landis- great TTer and been on form all year.
5. Evans- good TTer and climber, could be the surprise with even higher placing.
6. Popovych- good all rounder who keeps Disco's Tour hope going.
7. Vino- lower place than expected because of team distractions.
8. Mancebo- consistently high placed in Tour, could be even higher.
9. Kloden- decent all rounder who should have a good Tour.
10. Menchov- not sure he can hang with the big boys of the Tour.
 

·
Not Banned
Joined
·
49,249 Posts
I'm kinda in agreement

with crooked sky. Though I think floyd will be a suprise. I think he will split jan and Basso just not sure of the outcome. so I'll just say Floyd in second.
Valverde can't TT yet. Hasn't finished a TdF yet either. Give him some time. too soon for a podium. Vino? what team will he be riding for, this chaos has to effect his game a bit.

You know what I'm looking forward to, and this is going to sound funny?
What Discovery Channel will do? For the first time in 7 years they won't be responsible for maintaining tempo and have 3 riders who can be a threat. PS, YP and GH. Johann gets to play disruptor for once instead of controller. I find this interesting to see what he does with it. I think disco will have riders in the top 5 and top 10. Don't know who or how high.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,611 Posts
1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Landis
4. Vino
5. Valverde
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
777 Posts
1. Ullrich and Basso (record setting first ever tie for First as the fabric of time-space continuum becomes warped under the tremendous power generated between the two riders)

2. Landis

3. Vino, if he finds a team or doesn't get implicated in Operation Puerto.


Longshots (in no particular order, just my cynical opinion):
-Valverde: he even said it himself that he's not quite ready (see Cycle Sport February 2006 issue). Don't know if he's just saying that to throw off the competition or if he really means it.
-Leipheimer: not as strong as Landis. Could get lucky if everyone contender happens to fall off their bikes at the same time on some epic mountain stage and Leipheimer wins with a 10 min gap.
-Mancebo: His face of suffering and pain will be relieved with the smiles of elation after winning a stage or stages, but that's all he'll get. Podium placing out of reach.
-Landis: born with the Mennonite resolve and habit for hard work. Could possibly make the podium and rock out with his Oakley sunglasses and red goatee.
-Cadel Evans: "Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi Oi Oi!!!"
 

·
Genitive Declensioner
Joined
·
12,158 Posts
terzo rene said:
Here is my podium prediction

the crystal ball is cloudy after the top 2.

1) Basso

2) Ullrich

3) Dark Horse

Hincapie
Menchov
Popovych
Landis
Evans
Leipheimer
Another Dark Horse


rounding out the top ten....(in no particular order)
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
13,151 Posts
More Chalk then a school room

Wow, Ullrich or Basso- thems some dangerous picks. :)

What the heck-

1. Floyd Landis
2. Jan Ullrich
3. Menchov

Basso pulls out due to injury, aliens, sunspots or something like that.

I think this is going to be a TT'ers delight.
 
1 - 20 of 30 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top