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As long at there is an American in the Tour ... it's possible ... the question is whether it's "Probable", which at this point is a long shot at best.

As others have said, there are a couple that could in the future ... but they still fall under the list of "Possible" and not necessarily "Probable".
 

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No hope for an American to win the Tour this year, if that is what you are asking. Now, down the line a few years, possibly. As others have already mentioned, Tejay van Garderen is a potential candidate, along with Talansky or neo-pro Joe Dombrowski. Time will tell!
 

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I haven't followed pro cycling for a long time but want to get back into it.

There was a period when there were quite a few well-known Americans racing but I think they're mostly retired now.
Are there as many now as a decade ago?

I'm not such a nationalist that I only root for Americans but it is a good place to start.
 

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There has been a large generational gap. The US was stacked with talent but the others that followed weren't quite as good. Now we have some very young riders showing big potential: Tejay, Andrew Talansky, Joe Dombrowski, Taylor Phinney (not a GT rider). Time will tell. They are still a little far away from the top talent to really challenge.
 

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Anything is possible. I don't think any of us would have predicted Ryder winning the Giro last year. Tejay, Talansky, and Dombrowski could be future greats. It would be nice if Farrar got his sprint back in the game.
 

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No hope for an American to win the Tour this year, if that is what you are asking. Now, down the line a few years, possibly. As others have already mentioned, Tejay van Garderen is a potential candidate, along with Talansky or neo-pro Joe Dombrowski. Time will tell!
Agreed. Last US TdF Winner was ofcourse LeMonde (1989 and 1990) - read "Slaying the Badger" by Richard Moore for an account.
I'm thinking that of the three young-guns: van Garderen, Talansky and Dombrowski, that van Garderen is the great American hope. I wouldn't discount Phinney though - early days yet, but a nice amount of talent out there for the red-white-and-blue tilfosi.
IMHO: I think Farrar is a wash - but I've been wronge before, so perhaps we can hope for a newer better Farrar in the near future? I doubt it though.

That said, I've always felt the American's were too TdF-centric in thier approach to pro-cycling. The Giro and the Veulta may not have the media saturation one finds in the French Grand Tour - but I usually find them more exciting to watch than the TdF. I also suspect we might see an American champion in Italy or Spain before we see another one in France. Hampsten won in Italy in 1988, but no American has ever won in Spain - that would be a great goal for one of these young guys.
 

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Agreed. Last US TdF Winner was ofcourse LeMonde (1989 and 1990) - read "Slaying the Badger" by Richard Moore for an account.
I'm thinking that of the three young-guns: van Garderen, Talansky and Dombrowski, that van Garderen is the great American hope. I wouldn't discount Phinney though - early days yet, but a nice amount of talent out there for the red-white-and-blue tilfosi.
IMHO: I think Farrar is a wash - but I've been wronge before, so perhaps we can hope for a newer better Farrar in the near future? I doubt it though.

That said, I've always felt the American's were too TdF-centric in thier approach to pro-cycling. The Giro and the Veulta may not have the media saturation one finds in the French Grand Tour - but I usually find them more exciting to watch than the TdF. I also suspect we might see an American champion in Italy or Spain before we see another one in France. Hampsten won in Italy in 1988, but no American has ever won in Spain - that would be a great goal for one of these young guys.
I agree for the most part as well. Phinney and Farrar are sprinters, not GC threats, so they will never win the yellow jersey. I would love to see either in the green jersey though (which looks more likely for Phinney at this point). Talansky, Van Garderen and Donmborowski are the big hopes. It's possible that Talansky is the most talented of the bunch, he's a fighter and I like that. Dombrowski hasn't proven anything yet, but it's his first year on the big stage and he is on a talent rich team, so he is going to need some time (as will his young Americam teammate whose name escapes me right now). Guys like Stetina and a few others on Garmin are also solid, but they may not get a real shot at a leadership role in a grand tour for a while (and probably aren't ready). I actually wouldn't count Tejay or Talansky out this year or next. They both already have top 10s in grand tours. If Cadell slips, Tejay will be ready and Garmin might be forced to run the combo of Dan Martin and Talansky as their protected riders if Ryder is wiped out after the Giro. The first week of the TdF is wacky so, ultimately, it really is too early to predict anything.
 

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Perhaps we have put Phinney in a box prematurly? It has been seen that riders who begin as specialists emerge as GC hopefuls. He is still young and can still develop outside of the TT/Classics rider box we've put him in.

Lots of good emerging talent out there, also in France and elsewhere - it will be interesting to see how many of these hopefuls fulfill the promise that's been laid at thier doorsteps.
 

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Perhaps we have put Phinney in a box prematurly? It has been seen that riders who begin as specialists emerge as GC hopefuls. He is still young and can still develop outside of the TT/Classics rider box we've put him in.

Lots of good emerging talent out there, also in France and elsewhere - it will be interesting to see how many of these hopefuls fulfill the promise that's been laid at thier doorsteps.
Actually it's not about skill or will (he has both), it's about science. He's simply too big to climb with GC contenders (he's super fit, but too muscular). His best shot at glory is as a classics specialist/TT/sprinter. Even the best "tweeners" like Gilbert and Sagan can't compete for GC today and Phinney is significantly bigger than they are. I like him as much as anybody, but to paint him as a GC contender isn't realistic in my opinion. I absolutely agree with your last paragraph.
 

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Actually it's not about skill or will (he has both), it's about science. He's simply too big to climb with GC contenders (he's super fit, but too muscular). His best shot at glory is as a classics specialist/TT/sprinter. Even the best "tweeners" like Gilbert and Sagan can't compete for GC today and Phinney is significantly bigger than they are. I like him as much as anybody, but to paint him as a GC contender isn't realistic in my opinion. I absolutely agree with your last paragraph.
I should add that he is a lot like Tony Martin. They climb well for their classification and there are a couple of stage races and a good number of one day races that suit them well, but they are no threat for GC in grand tours or high profile stage races.
 

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There has been a large generational gap. The US was stacked with talent but the others that followed weren't quite as good. Now we have some very young riders showing big potential: Tejay, Andrew Talansky, Joe Dombrowski, Taylor Phinney (not a GT rider). Time will tell. They are still a little far away from the top talent to really challenge.

Mmm would probably more accurate to say that, for a few years, Americans were the most effective dopers in the pro peloton. Nowadays, one hopes, the playing field is more level and therefore the American kids have a tougher time rising to the top (as it should be)
 

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I'd settle for an american version of Fabian - universally recognized as one of the strongest riders and a ton of fans.
Now Phinney absolutely has that kind of potential. He just needs to win more meaningful races (particularly the big classics) to get there.
 
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