[rollinrob]

With a "clean Peloton" will the average speed go down in this years TDF?

 

[55x11]

I think overall pace as a criteria of "doping" is way overrated. It more depends on the overall elevation profile of the race, the weather, how many teams are willing to take charge and maintain solid tempo over early stages, how many breakaways are there, etc. Top riders like Armstrong are in the front for a very small fraction of the Tour, so mathematically they don't contribute to overall speed much at all. During hot days, or rainy days the entire peloton may decide to soft-pedal for the first two hours. Or if there's a "nobody"'s breakaway and nobody wants to chase them. Sometimes there are significant winds that help or slow down the peloton as well.

I expect this year to be quite fast - less hills than usual, a lot of time trials. Of course time trials are usually even faster, but the lack of serious hills will keep overall pace high. You take the tough day in the mountain where they average 15mph, and you replace it with a flat sprinter stage where they go 30+mph, and it changes overall time much more than small changes in individual fitness of the riders.

Of course we also have less riders to begin the Tour, so that may slow things down just a bit.

 

[bonkmiester]

With a "clean Peloton" will the average speed go down in this years TDF?

.......yes.........with a "clean" peleton, avg. spd. would go down....

is this years TdF clean?


......no..... not even the "clean team" (FR) is clean ......

but the average speed could be down anyway, since Le Train Bleu is not trying to blow up the peleton for LA.........and CSC doesn't have to attempt to do the same for Basso anymore..... not sure CSC could have anyway, although I think thats what Bjarne had in mind tactically.... and IMVHO t-Mobile wasn't capable of doing that...........

However, since Le Train Bleu is essentially intact, they are quite capable of blowing the whole thing wide open.......they just need to have someone to believe in so they kill themselves everyday ....... think GH would fork over his prize money like LA if he won the TdF ???????

b0nk

 

[the embalmer]

it will be down

I think it will be down with no clear favorite. disco just pushed the pace to control the breaks and wear everyone out so lance would have it easier