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With nearly everyone picking either Basso or Ullrich for the tour and citing guesses as to how much Jan will beat Basso in the TT by and how much Basso will be able to squeeze from Ulle in the of Mtns I thoght I would post some spilts from the last Tour:

Opening stage: Noirmoutier-en-l'Ile ITT, 19 km Jan takes :18 from Basso


Courchevel - first Mtn of 05 tour Basso beat Ullrich by 1:12 - hardly and epic stage
Ax-3 Domaines - Jan loses :18 from getting gapped at the top

I have read that there aren't any stages like this in the 2006 TDF:
Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Jan loses another 1:24 to Basso

Saint-Etienne ITT Jan puts 1:31 into Basso in 55K

Maybe someone who has really reviewed the 2007 route would like to comment?

Nik
 

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Honestly, I think it comes down to the teams.

So much depends on how CSC and T-Mobile work as teams. While Jan may seem to make odd decisions (like pulling a huge gear and riding on aerobars for the '04 AdH TT), I think so much relies on how the team plays it and how the DS runs each stage.

Hopefully Jan will come out all stoked for the prologue, unlike last year. While it was exciting to see Lance pass him, I couldn't help but think, "the race has already been lost by Jan." And he seemed to be a non-factor, quietly slipping into a podium position on the final TT.

What really has me worried is that he just released a bike line. To me, that is a move to do once you retire. Would be great to see him bookend the Lance years and roll into Paris on the yet-unreleased Jan 06 Tour bike (Giant be damned), but this aint Hollywood.

sorry if i hijacked the thread.
 

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weltyed said:
So much depends on how CSC and T-Mobile work as teams. While Jan may seem to make odd decisions (like pulling a huge gear and riding on aerobars for the '04 AdH TT), I think so much relies on how the team plays it and how the DS runs each stage.

What really has me worried is that he just released a bike line. To me, that is a move to do once you retire. Would be great to see him bookend the Lance years and roll into Paris on the yet-unreleased Jan 06 Tour bike (Giant be damned), but this aint Hollywood.
He came 2nd in that TT didn't he? Mistake?

as for the bikeline... the guy has no input... no financial commitment... they're just rebadged frames... and Ullrich isn't going to pick those frames over the TCR Advanced...
 

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he did come in second, but i think he would have done better had he opened up and gotten outta the aerobars. i would have pointed out the backward aero wheel from last year, but taht was more mechanical than rider...

and i thought he did have somewhat of a say in the design of the bikes. while it may be part of the selling the company, he did say they would be the bikes he would ride in the tour if he could.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/tech/?id=2006/features/ullrich_bikes
 

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It'll be a good battle (one that i'd like to see Ullrich win), however I think Basso has gotten a little bit better at the TT, and at very best Ullrich hasn't lost any more deficit in the mountains. Basso wins by 1 or 2 minutes.
 

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Ullrich won't ride those frames

It says in the above posted article that Ullrich can't ride the grand tour frame in TDF, because it is too light for the weight restriction, a convenient selling point, but also a convenient way to support it without really doing so.
Matt
 
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