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If you say "winning a stage," how about Top 10 vs. winning a stage?

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If you say "winning a stage," how about Top 10 vs. winning a stage?

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The only thing anyone remembers is who won the race, who came in second, maybe the jersey winners, and who won some of the stages.dennis1215 said:

If you say "winning a stage," how about Top 10 vs. winning a stage?

The only people who care about the top 10 or 20 are riders looking for contracts and directors looking for riders.

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a stage win secures local immortality for a European racer. They can retire, return to their hometown, and run the central bar with their podium pic displayed over the bar...mohair_chair said:The only thing anyone remembers is who won the race, who came in second, maybe the jersey winners, and who won some of the stages.

The only people who care about the top 10 or 20 are riders looking for contracts and directors looking for riders.

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there are 20 stages, so chances are about right, in fact for an average not-well-rounded rider winning a stage is much more of a possibility than getting top 20. But winning a stage is still much better than finishing, say, 18th on GC. Who cares?Mootsie said:You have a 1 in 198 chance of winning a stage.

You have a 20 in 198 chance of finishing in the top 20.

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thats a 1 in 198 chance of wining each stage over 21 stages which is like a 21 in 198 chance of winning a stage in the tourMootsie said:You have a 1 in 198 chance of winning a stage.

You have a 20 in 198 chance of finishing in the top 20.

i think stage wins from breakaways is more about luck than a high GC placing or its a sprinters orgy so i give more respect to GC placing

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A top 10 is definite resume material also. Top 20, that's more inside baseball, contract negotiation material.

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Actually the math is off. You have an equal chance for each stage, 1 in 198, so your odds of winning a stage are always 1 in 198.tinkerbeast said:thats a 1 in 198 chance of wining each stage over 21 stages which is like a 21 in 198 chance of winning a stage in the tour

i think stage wins from breakaways is more about luck than a high GC placing or its a sprinters orgy so i give more respect to GC placing

It's sort of like saying your odds of getting a heads while flipping a coin increase every time you flip it, but in reality it's always 50/50.

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Maybe, but there is no glory for anything less than 3rd place on GC. You don't get to stand on a podium. You don't get a trophy. Basically, you get the same thing that everybody else gets who finishes the race.limba said:I think coming in the top 10 or top 20 may be HARDER then winning a stage but winning anything is always better.

Win a stage, and it's something special.

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No, the math is correct - chances of winning at least *a single* stage for a given rider in a 21-stage Tour is (assuming everyone has the same shot every time) is very close to 21/198. It's actually 1-(197/198)^21 which is basically 10% - the easiest thing is to consider chances of NOT winning a stage, which is 197/198 and then consider the probability of that happening 21 times in a row... Basic probability 101.Mootsie said:Actually the math is off. You have an equal chance for each stage, 1 in 198, so your odds of winning a stage are always 1 in 198.

It's sort of like saying your odds of getting a heads while flipping a coin increase every time you flip it, but in reality it's always 50/50.

It's like asking what are the odds of getting at least one flip to come up as tails when you throw a coin 21 times vs. throwing it only once - obviously the odds get very close to 1 as

wrong assumption. makes the math pointless55x11 said:(assuming everyone has the same shot every time)

20th GC = 950 Euro

10th GC = 3800 Euro

The lowest GC finish that beats a single stage win is 7th place for 11500 Euro.

http://www.letour.fr/2010/TDF/COURSE/docs/reglement.pdf

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Which do you think earns you more on the transfer market?pretender said:

20th GC = 950 Euro

10th GC = 3800 Euro

The lowest GC finish that beats a single stage win is 7th place for 11500 Euro.

http://www.letour.fr/2010/TDF/COURSE/docs/reglement.pdf

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seriously? You would model this assuming a uniform distribution?55x11 said:No, the math is correct - chances of winning at least *a single* stage for a given rider in a 21-stage Tour is (assuming everyone has the same shot every time) is very close to 21/198. It's actually 1-(197/198)^21 which is basically 10% - the easiest thing is to consider chances of NOT winning a stage, which is 197/198 and then consider the probability of that happening 21 times in a row... Basic probability 101.

It's like asking what are the odds of getting at least one flip to come up as tails when you throw a coin 21 times vs. throwing it only once - obviously the odds get very close to 1 as

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Well duh! (you have better model of probabilities of stage wins for all 198 riders?! please share).tubadude said:wrong assumption. makes the math pointless

The point was - *assuming* that obviously naive model, the *math* of original poster is correct, and whoever was criticizing was wrong.

Your point is akin to saying all math is pointless because, for example, no train is ever capable of traveling at uniform speed from point A to point B.

Whether math *model* is good is a different question, I was responding to the criticism of the math, not the model.

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