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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
It appears that Vino is a solid bet still. I didn't realize Kloden was riding.

Internet Bookmakers' odds for Tour de France
(As of 5:00 p.m. Friday)

* Alejandro Valverde (ILL) -7/2
* Alexandre Vinokourov (Wur) -7/2
* Levi Leipheimer (Ger) -7/1
* Floyd Landis (Pho) -7/1
* Cadel Evans (Dav) -10/1
* Yaroslav Popovych (Dis) -12/1
* Paolo Savoldelli (Dis) -20/1
* Andreas Kloden (T-M) -20/1
* Michael Rasmussen (Rab) -25/1
* Denis Menchov (Rab) -25/1
* George Hincapie (Dis) -25/1
* Iban Mayo (Eus) -25/1
* Jose Azevedo (Dis) -25/1
* Christophe Moreau (Ag2) -33/1
 

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Sounds like Vino's out, which is unfortunate - just think of the havoc he could play in such a wide-open tour.

If I were a betting man, I'd have some money on Popovych or Landis. Edge to Popovych, because Disc. Chan will have the strongest team by far - you could make a case that Popovych, Savodelli, and Hincapie are all capable of a top-five finish.
 

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55x11 said:
It appears that Vino is a solid bet still. I didn't realize Kloden was riding.

Internet Bookmakers' odds for Tour de France
(As of 5:00 p.m. Friday)

* Alejandro Valverde (ILL) -7/2
* Alexandre Vinokourov (Wur) -7/2
* Levi Leipheimer (Ger) -7/1
* Floyd Landis (Pho) -7/1
* Cadel Evans (Dav) -10/1
* Yaroslav Popovych (Dis) -12/1
* Paolo Savoldelli (Dis) -20/1
* Andreas Kloden (T-M) -20/1
* Michael Rasmussen (Rab) -25/1
* Denis Menchov (Rab) -25/1
* George Hincapie (Dis) -25/1
* Iban Mayo (Eus) -25/1
* Jose Azevedo (Dis) -25/1
* Christophe Moreau (Ag2) -33/1

I don't agree with those rankings and I think the element of chaos at the moment may be a big factor in why it's off. ie: Valverde and Vinokourov
 

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I think the bookmakers are on dope!

Vino??? even if he starts he will practically be a one man show. I'll say this, if Vino is clean (and that is an if for every rider), nobody got screwed bigger than this guy.

I don't get Valverde being the top dog, he has never finished the tour and his team is neither weak nor strong. Time Trialing will still be a huge factor in this race, and he has shown no signs of major improvement in that department. He could lose 5-10 mintues to the leaders of the time trial stages.

I think this is the best chance for Leiphemer if his DS gets behind him. Floyd is still a question after the Dauphine and he too faces a team that could lose riders at an moment due to the doping scandle. The wild card will be anybody on Discovery.
 

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Moreau looks undervalued at those odds. Last year he finished in 11th overall, 5:05 behind Levi, the highest placed-finisher returning. And Moreau looked pretty good in the Dauphine in the mountains.
 

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harlond said:
Moreau looks undervalued at those odds. Last year he finished in 11th overall, 5:05 behind Levi, the highest placed-finisher returning. And Moreau looked pretty good in the Dauphine in the mountains.
I agree. Casar also road very well at the Giro if somewhat overshadowed by Gadret's performance so he may go well. Also if Chavanel is ever going to fill his promise as one of the hopes of French cycling now would be a good time.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
goose127 said:
Vino??? even if he starts he will practically be a one man show. I'll say this, if Vino is clean (and that is an if for every rider), nobody got screwed bigger than this guy.

I don't get Valverde being the top dog, he has never finished the tour and his team is neither weak nor strong. Time Trialing will still be a huge factor in this race, and he has shown no signs of major improvement in that department. He could lose 5-10 mintues to the leaders of the time trial stages.

I think this is the best chance for Leiphemer if his DS gets behind him. Floyd is still a question after the Dauphine and he too faces a team that could lose riders at an moment due to the doping scandle. The wild card will be anybody on Discovery.
I am not much into bookmaking, and I am not even sure I know the rules (like whether the total of all chances has to add up to 1 or something), but here's how my own list would go:


* Floyd Landis (Pho) -7/1
* Cadel Evans (Dav) -8/1
* Levi Leipheimer (Ger) -9/1
* Yaroslav Popovych (Dis) -12/1
* Vladimir Karpets 12/1
* Bobby Julich -12/1
* Denis Menchov (Rab) -15/1
* George Hincapie (Dis) -20/1
* Christophe Moreau (Ag2) -20/1
* Paolo Savoldelli (Dis) -25/1
* Iban Mayo (Eus) -25/1
* Jose Azevedo (Dis) -25/1
* Gilberto Simoni 30/1
* Damiano Cunego 35/1
* Andreas Kloden (T-M) -40/1
* David Zabriskie (CSC) -40/1
* Michael Rasmussen (Rab) -40/1

anyone agrees/disagrees? Did I miss anyone?
 

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55x11 said:
I am not much into bookmaking, and I am not even sure I know the rules (like whether the total of all chances has to add up to 1 or something), but here's how my own list would go:


* Floyd Landis (Pho) -7/1
* Cadel Evans (Dav) -8/1
* Levi Leipheimer (Ger) -9/1
* Yaroslav Popovych (Dis) -12/1
* Vladimir Karpets 12/1
* Bobby Julich -12/1
* Denis Menchov (Rab) -15/1
* George Hincapie (Dis) -20/1
* Christophe Moreau (Ag2) -20/1
* Paolo Savoldelli (Dis) -25/1
* Iban Mayo (Eus) -25/1
* Jose Azevedo (Dis) -25/1
* Gilberto Simoni 30/1
* Damiano Cunego 35/1
* Andreas Kloden (T-M) -40/1
* David Zabriskie (CSC) -40/1
* Michael Rasmussen (Rab) -40/1

anyone agrees/disagrees? Did I miss anyone?
If you're going to rate guys like Julich (no real GT results in almost a decade) or Rasmussen (no sign of form this year and totally unsuited parcours) I would say anyone who has shown they can ride in the top-10 at a GT should be considered and several other promising riders. I'd add odds on Sastre, Honchar, Totschnig, Di Luca, Garzelli, Zubeldia, Bruseghin, Valjevic, Caucchioli, Canada, Garate, Rujano, Peirero and Mercado. Some young riders who could make a big name for themselves are Fothem, Chavanel, Casar, Iglinsky and Marchante. Might even see something from Voeckler!

A couple of well-timed transfusions and this TdF could probably be taken out by most anyone listed above (well, guys like Rasmussen and Voeckler don't really have a shot at winning but certainly top-10).
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Dwayne Barry said:
If you're going to rate guys like Julich (no real GT results in almost a decade) or Rasmussen (no sign of form this year and totally unsuited parcours) I would say anyone who has shown they can ride in the top-10 at a GT should be considered and several other promising riders. I'd add odds on Sastre, Honchar, Totschnig, Di Luca, Garzelli, Zubeldia, Bruseghin, Valjevic, Caucchioli, Canada, Garate, Rujano, Peirero and Mercado. Some young riders who could make a big name for themselves are Fothem, Chavanel, Casar, Iglinsky and Marchante. Might even see something from Voeckler!

A couple of well-timed transfusions and this TdF could probably be taken out by most anyone listed above (well, guys like Rasmussen and Voeckler don't really have a shot at winning but certainly top-10).
I think you are correct about some of them - I was mostly re-arranging the current list of the bookmakers, which is why Rassie was there. I agree he has no shot.

Julich is a solid time trialist, and I think he has a better shot than Sastre.
He may have been riding in support of others in the past, but I think he can do well on this course.
Honchar may have a very good shot indeed! DiLuca doesn't seem like much of a time trialer, and he was absent from Giro. I think Pereiro is the only one that has a shot at anything from the rest of the list. Of the youngsters, maybe Casar and Iglinsky, but I don't see anyone else.
 

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55x11 said:
I think you are correct about some of them - I was mostly re-arranging the current list of the bookmakers, which is why Rassie was there. I agree he has no shot.

Julich is a solid time trialist, and I think he has a better shot than Sastre.
He may have been riding in support of others in the past, but I think he can do well on this course.
Honchar may have a very good shot indeed! DiLuca doesn't seem like much of a time trialer, and he was absent from Giro. I think Pereiro is the only one that has a shot at anything from the rest of the list. Of the youngsters, maybe Casar and Iglinsky, but I don't see anyone else.
I like Julich, but I don't think he is a capable climber compared with the other cotenders, and his admitted weakness is in long GTs - he doesn't have it. Top 5 will be:
Menchov
Landis
Popovych
Moreau
Kloden
 
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