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His chances are_________________ at a GT win.

Can Tejay van Garderen win a Tour de France (or other major GT)

4K views 31 replies 22 participants last post by  AJL 
#1 ·
I watched how he rode in the Amgen, and he looked calm and ready every stage. He is a young guy, and while not "the best" climber, he is showing marked improvements.

Many say he is a classic or short (7 stage) guy, and a GT is not in the cards. But he did finish 5th in the Tour de France last year, and that was as a support rider for Evans. Meaning to me, he can ride with the big guns.

Whats your take on his future as a GT GC rider?
 
#3 ·
You never really know if somebody has the tools to win it or not until they finish in the top 5 ... and even then, that can be meaningless.

He looked good at TOC ... but it's a week long stage race that is used to build fitness for the TDF. How many times did Leipheimer win the TOC and never even get on the podium at the TDF? 3 or 4 times?

There is a big difference between doing well in a one week stage race and a three week stage race. He may have the tools, but we won't know it for a couple more years and even if he does have the tools ... he may never win one. It takes more than talent to win a TDF, there is a lot of luck, planning and mix of opponents that take place to win one.
 
#4 ·
There are a number of possible winners out there. It's easy to get caught up in Tejay-mania as one watches the ToC.

The problem is that there are a lot of young riders coming up that may prove to be better all-rounders than Tejay in a couple of years. The history books of cycling are filled with riders who burned brightly for one or two seasons and then were never heard from again.

While I'd be glad to see Tejay be anointed the next great thing - I suspect it would be premature to do so at this point.

Let Andy Schleck be a lesson to us all - the guy has gobs of natural talent and won a TdF (well, sort of) - but will he ever win another? Lots can happen between a golden jersey in Cali and a yellow jersey in France - I'll reserve judgement for now. But I suspect an American rider will win one of the GTs again soon enough (Tejay is one possibility) - but perhaps not the TdF anytime soon.
 
#6 ·
I think TJ is really their first option in the Tour de France this year. Cadel might be able to win the Giro, but no way a 34-year-old guy is going to win Giro-Tour double.Thats just not realistic.
 
#11 ·
Last year I predicted that in 3 years it would be a battle between TJVG and thibeault pinot for a Tour win, maybe even on par with the iconic lemond/fignon battle. I stand by that. That fact that cadel has shown in the Giro that GT aspirations are past him might move Tejay up in the bmc hierarchy, but give him 2 more years and he will be a Tour favorite.
 
#14 ·
With him supporting Evans so much and still having the strength to just go when he needed shows he just might win it. The ToC was pretty good shape up this year as it had insanely hot weather, wind and a pretty decent mountain climb. Can he do it for 3 weeks? One can only hope.

I think that his ITT is what really sets him apart. The fact he finished 4th in the prologue, stage 9 ITT and 7th in the stage 19th ITT is huge. He is a very strong rider where he can gain lots of time rather easily.

At 24, we have quite a few years to find out. I dont think he will win this year but he certainly should be BMCs #1 rider.
 
#15 ·
TJVG doesn't have the pop on the climbs to come out and say "yes he will crush it". With Rodriguez not racing the Giro this year, he will be fresher for the Tour. Froome will have great legs too. Can TJVG keep up with Rodriguez on the attacks? I don't think he can. He has many years to go still and the right combination of stages and the right group of people will allow for it some day.
 
#20 ·
not too soon, but I think its possible. (Easy answer, I know.) I like him, and was glad to see him win the ITT for toc, not just do well in it, but I think he'd need to get the type of ITT results/courses suited to his liking that Wiggins did last year to contend.
 
#26 ·
BMC announced before the ITT today that Cadel would be a protected rider at the Tour based on his performance at the Giro. Halfway through the ITT, that decision looks less justified. He's on pace to lose nearly 3 minutes to Nibali today.
 
#30 ·
I would love to see TJVG win but I just don't think this is the tour for him. Add to that BMC saying Snuggles will be a protected rider and other distractions that naturally follow the tour. There are also to many other great riders that will have full team support.

Maybe in a year or two when Evans is completely out of the picture and the team is 100% dedicated to TJVG, perhaps with some help in the form of a more ITT friendly tour...he COULD win.

Just my thoughts
 
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