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Can you win the TDF

5K views 66 replies 33 participants last post by  Rashadabd 
#1 ·
No you can't. Unless you can ride 114 miles average 25-30 MPH and on the last climb of the day ride grades of 8%-9%-10% at a speed of 11-12MPH. I am glad to see more real time race information like MPH and grade %. Now we just need what gears they are using.
 
#4 ·
Last fall on a climb, I was passed by a jogger (running with her dog no less). That was when I released I was never going to make it to the tour.

A couple of days ago they averaged 29mph over the first 95 miles of the ride. Kind of blows my mind. Having said that, they are pros. I can keep up with them just as well as I can block JJ Watt, guard Lebron or hit Kershaw. Meaning, I can't do any of that.
 
#27 ·
I couldn't even finish it in anywhere near the days allotted for that INSANE race.

Actually lots of people could do that. Start early and ride all day. PACTour folks cross the USA every year at those kinds of daily mileages.

But to even be on a TdF team you have to be a genetic mutant who has trained to perfection and is willing to suffer immensely. Few of the rest of the population has even one of those traits, let alone all three.
 
#12 ·
So what should the average working guy, getting middle aged and gaining weight, look forward to in his training for fitness and health? Is 6-8 mph reasonable on those 10% grades? For how long? Anyone ridden up a substantial climb on a club ride at 12-14 mph? Are there Strava averages for these climbs? How do you place?

I've noticed the TDF riders are using standard chainrings, like 39/50 or 53, and no bigger than 28 t. cassettes. And they're climbing a lot in the middle cogs cranking around 75-80 rpm at least, "on top of the gear" with a few exceptions. Even the guys dropping off the back in their 28s are still cranking purposefully, not exactly stalling out.

Seems politically correct to avoid talking about performance specifics so as not to make anyone feel bad or like a loser, but heck, we all ride, WTF? Its fun to compare stories of personal exploits.

I rode with guys who could average 25 mph on a club ride. Most of the time it was 20-22 mph but we had our moments of glory.

A buddy rode Hottern Hell Hundred in several packs averaging 25 mph. He did it in 4 hours flat. I used to climb at 12 mph up a steep hill in Rock Creek Park with club riders who could do it a 15 mph. Not a mountain for sure, but a nice taste of what it's like.

We cheer these pros because they're us, only better.
 
#18 ·
I've noticed the TDF riders are using standard chainrings, like 39/50 or 53, and no bigger than 28 t. cassettes
Sky use 12-28 and 53/39 almost all the time, year round, that's plenty of range. For extreme climbs they may use a 32. Froome uses that 54 oval ring, sometimes a 55.

Federico, remember that these guys are pros. They have all their chores taken care of, food is prepared for them, clothes are provided, there is no laundry to do or lawn to mow. There is even a barber on call.

They ride, eat, and recover. They don't have to mow their lawn, paint the garage, babysit the grandkids.

A lot of us would improve if we had that routine.
 
#15 ·
Sure us average Joes couldn't win the tour today but what if we took our fancy carbon bikes and cross fit conditioning back to the first years of the tour? What kind of times did those riders post?

The only issue to doing that is I hear carbon assplodes during time travel, as soon as they work that out I'm going back to challenge the pros!
 
#19 · (Edited)
No you can't. Unless you can ride 114 miles average 25-30 MPH and on the last climb of the day ride grades of 8%-9%-10% at a speed of 11-12MPH.
Sure I can, I climb 10% grades at 11mph all the time. On the internet... :aureola:

Seriously, many of those randomly selected feats like the above can be achieved by reasonably strong amateurs. I probably have done 11mph on 10% grades myself... for 200 yards, maybe. I have done 100+ miles in a small peloton (12 riders) at 24mph (average, not "whenever I looked at my Garmin I saw 24+mph"); I'm fairly confident that 25mph would be in the cards in a huge group like the kind of peloton they're running at the TdF. Remember, with 100 riders in the group, you'll be pulling only for a mile or so total at that speed, all the rest is just hanging out on somebody's wheel.

The question is, can you still do that on the third 6-mile climb, with 120 hard miles in your legs? And can you do that still on the next day, and the next, and on and on for three weeks? That's when you get into realms of performance that are simply out of reach of anyone but a select few.

Final remark: So, yeah, asking a rank amateur (or even a Cat-3, say) if they can win the TdF is ludicrous. The question of "Can such a person hang in the back of the TdF peloton over a full stage" is more interesting. If you watched some of the early, flat stages, the guys in the peloton took it fairly easy on some of these, with perhaps a smaller break-away hammering it pretty hard. Some decent amateurs could probably survive a stage like that, once. However, it's very unlikely that such a person could survive a full TdF even just hanging in the back of the peloton.
 
#24 ·
So yes, we can use the same gears as these pros, and ride in rotating pace lines at 25 mph average speeds for 4 hour centuries like my not so fit buddy did on an '80s steel bike, I might add. But yes, doing it like it was a normal activity, day after day, is another matter. But it's an endurance thing, not so much raw strength or technologically superior bikes. As you say, the differences have been minimal over the last 40 years.

So we mortals can touch the greatness of our heroes sporadically on our club rides and personal bests--then need a day off to recover! The TDF riders only get two, right, the whole race?

One of the more fascinating things about the Tour is which riders get stronger and which get weaker. Very easy even for them to blow it all out the first week or two, then drop back in the standings or abandon. We seldom get that deep into our reserves or ability to recover after the day's ride.

And those guys spend the whole season carefully building up fitness so as to peak in the Tour. Some make it, others don't. We never have to worry about the long term issues they face in what they will tell you is the most brutal race in the world.
 
#37 ·
I think the form is a functional thing that, once accomplished, moves on to the aesthetics. Obviously anyone at the pro level has reached a functional level of form, and there are varying levels of aesthetically pleasing form once you're decently functional.

But go to any amateur bike race... I can immediately tell if it's a lower class cat 4 or 5 field versus a elite masters or 1,2 field simply by looking at the riders coming by. Guys sitting up like sailboats, limbs all over the place, scooting around on their saddle like they can't find a comfortable spot, getting out of the saddle and throwing their bike back half a foot in the process, and usually yelling something about holding a line... ;D ... very easy to identify. And those are people actually racing.

There's a big difference between new and experienced racers in their form and how they sit on the bike. And then compare that to someone just riding around for fun. It's pretty easy (in my opinion) to spot a casual rider versus a serious racer when driving behind them or passing them on the road. Very different look on the bike.
 
#41 ·
Thanks, I get this part, bike handling, position on the bike... It's references to smooth pedaling, perfect form applied to pedaling the bike. I see your point and it's a good one. What is a functional level of form turning cranks and can you see it?
 
#40 ·
To me its like comparing pro golfers and weekend warriors, all of us are capable of making that down hill 30 footer but its the 300 yd drive, the 180 yd long iron and the chip out of the sand trap that got us there..

I'd look good at the gate and would be there after dark to clean the bikes but not so much in the middle! or at the end!!
 
#42 ·
Nah, you'd get dropped in the switchbacks on the mountain descents. I get really nervous watching the camera motorcycle trying to keep up with some guy whipping through the turns at 30 mph. They lean those things way over!

The riders were blasting down rain-slick hills around 50mph.......the motorcycles had to keep up, but even in a car I wouldn't do that! Surprised they weren't all sliding off into the abyss.

As for going back in time, I was reading the results from one of the first Tours, maybe THE first, and out of 100 entrants, there were roughly 14 or so finishers.

One of the top riders didn't come back the following year to defend his title b/c his wife cheated on him while he was racing, and he committed suicide.

The riders were like guinea pigs for performance-enhancing and pain-relieving substances. Maybe they were only able to compete on account of the potent drugs??

Or maybe they were from hardscrabble backgrounds and led active, physically-intense lives before racing, making them naturally strong?
 
#43 ·
Probably from hard scrabble backgrounds. :D An old friend who grew up in France used to tell me, as I enthusiastically described my cycling exploits, that cycling in Europe is much like basketball or football in the US. Pro cycling taps talent from the working class, basically, providing a way out of the ghettos of poverty. In the US, cycling is more of a middle class sport, snooty dentists and lawyers. The poor over here can't afford the equipment.
 
#45 ·
Sending the thread sideways:

If you could be elite/world class in any endeavor, what would it be.

Although cycling is the favorite sport I do, it wouldn't be what I'd pick. I'd probably choose to be an excellent major league infielder (3b or ss) in contention for the batting title from year to year.

Or play guitar and write music as well as Leo Kottke in his prime.
 
#48 ·
here is another tidbit that i heard at a stage this year. i don't remember what stage but it was a sprint stage and the peloton was just not in the mood to go fast i think they were all joking and talking to other teams and stuff. and bobke said they are going so slow his emphasis. someone else said yea they are going 18 mph why are they going so slow?
 
#51 ·
Hilarious reading this thread. Like in anything, the pyramid gets really really steep as you get to the top.

There are about 200k high school football players in the us. That becomes 10k in college. That becomes 1500 pros, about 800 actually playing. So while you think you are a super duper stud being captain of you high school team, chances of you going pro; well you should have a great backup plan.

I am sure that the stats aren't that different whether it's wanting to be a neurosurgeon, NBA, or TDF.

can you ride 130 mi a day for 3 weeks without any time off? Most of us who actively ride and are on this forum, no way. Are there some of who train and are semi pro, sure, they could do it. Could you actually compete? Ask that high school phenom who is still in the minor leagues at 27. There are a ton of them who just can't make that last step. It's a yuuuge one.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk 2
 
#52 ·
NBA? Don't even... What is there like 15 guys on a team? 46 in Football? Crazy at the elite levels in almost every sport. Genetics+work ethic+weird things we don't understand...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
#55 ·
I know some local riders that may be able to keep up with the Peloton, guys that ride 25-27mph for 100+ miles and are hitting 250-400 miles a week. But repeating that every day for three weeks? Sounds tough.

How about a TdF that has a start and finish, whoever can ride the course in the fewest days? No stages, just a start and a finish line.
 
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