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I'll bet you they're gonna sell hundreds of millions of iPads world wide. China alone should be huge... This thing stands to replace the laptop.
 

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I've just got one, it slices, dices, juliennes, and I can look at porn.



Unless it's flash based.
 

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spyderman said:
I'll bet you they're gonna sell hundreds of millions of iPads world wide. China alone should be huge... This thing stands to replace the laptop.
It won't replace the laptop for professional users and content creators. But for Joe and Jane Average who just want to surf the web, do email, maybe some light productivity apps, a few games... yeah, it could definitely be the start of a 'post-PC era' that ppl have been talking about for a long time now.

When many ppl were speculating in the late '90s about how the 'network computer' was going to eventually replace the PC, they got it wrong, but count on crazy ol' Steve Jobs to eventually get it right. Funny part is that Bill Gates was hawking tablet computers as far back as 2000 (maybe as a reaction to the network computer concept being pushed by Larry Ellison/Oracle), but neither he nor the PC makers could ever get it right.

Again though, power users and content creators will hold on to their laptops. They aren't going away entirely, laptops and lightweight tablets will co-exist happily together in the brave new world. And of course, the transition is going to take many years too.
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SystemShock said:
When many ppl were speculating in the late '90s about how the 'network computer' was going to eventually replace the PC, they got it wrong, but count on crazy ol' Steve Jobs to eventually get it right. Funny part is that Bill Gates was hawking tablet computers as far back as 2000 (maybe as a reaction to the network computer concept being pushed by Larry Ellison/Oracle), but neither he nor the PC makers could ever get it right.
It wasn't until 2009 that the hardware was there to make a tablet computer cheap enough, fast enough, light enough and with a battery that lasted long enough to be usable. Apple merely capitalized on the fact that the premature launch of the early tablets made the other manufacturers reluctant to try one more time -- so they supersized the iPod Touch and counted on their fan base to fall in line like they usually do.

I'm not knocking Apple or the iPad -- which I think is a fantastic device -- it's just not all that revolutionary. Evolutionary, yes. Apple is already watching its smartphone market share evaporate. The same will happen with the tablet market over the next 18 months.


I completely agree though about who will stick with a traditional PC/laptop and who will use a tablet. It looks like Ellison will end up mostly right after all though. Cloud computing is thin client all the way.
 

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eminence grease
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KenB said:
It wasn't until 2009 that the hardware was there to make a tablet computer cheap enough, fast enough, light enough and with a battery that lasted long enough to be usable. Apple merely capitalized on the fact that the premature launch of the early tablets made the other manufacturers reluctant to try one more time -- so they supersized the iPod Touch and counted on their fan base to fall in line like they usually do.

I'm not knocking Apple or the iPad -- which I think is a fantastic device -- it's just not all that revolutionary. Evolutionary, yes. Apple is already watching its smartphone market share evaporate. The same will happen with the tablet market over the next 18 months.


I completely agree though about who will stick with a traditional PC/laptop and who will use a tablet. It looks like Ellison will end up mostly right after all though. Cloud computing is thin client all the way.
The guy who really had it right was Ken Olsen. Our mantra at DEC in the early 80's was "The network is the computer" and I laugh out loud every time the Google lads try to make it sound like they have come up with something so incredible.

History is littered with visionaries who had great technological ideas but lacked the nuts and bolts to actually implement. Look at Leonardo.
 

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KenB said:
It wasn't until 2009 that the hardware was there to make a tablet computer cheap enough, fast enough, light enough and with a battery that lasted long enough to be usable. Apple merely capitalized on the fact that the premature launch of the early tablets made the other manufacturers reluctant to try one more time -- so they supersized the iPod Touch and counted on their fan base to fall in line like they usually do.

I'm not knocking Apple or the iPad -- which I think is a fantastic device -- it's just not all that revolutionary. Evolutionary, yes. Apple is already watching its smartphone market share evaporate. The same will happen with the tablet market over the next 18 months.


I completely agree though about who will stick with a traditional PC/laptop and who will use a tablet. It looks like Ellison will end up mostly right after all though. Cloud computing is thin client all the way.
To be fair, Apple didn't just capitalize on the timing... they also did some nice work in design and custom silicon, including the A4 chip. Many of Apple's competitors were pretty surprised when the iPad came out... they had been expecting it to be twice the cost with half the battery life. Apple also leveraged the ton of iPhone/iOS apps that were already out there. Timing alone isn't why the iPad knocked it out of the park.

Far as market share goes, I don't think anyone expects Apple to have something like 75 percent market share in either smartphones or tablet PCs, long-term... there's just too much large entrenched competition in those areas for Apple to own the market the way they have in music players. Rio and Creative are no Nokia, Google, and HP (Sony was around in digital music players in the early days, but their strategy there was so laughably bad that no one could've won with it).

All that said, Apple will still have a pretty nice chunk of both markets long-term (no doubt concentrated at the more-profitable high-end), and both are markets they didn't have a presence in before. Big win for both the company and any AAPL shareholders out there, no matter how you slice it.

And the crazy part is, Apple seems capable of doing this over and over again, in other markets as well. I think the only thing that can really stop them is Jobs passing away or retiring... as big an a-hole as he often is, he seems to understand what users want better than most anybody, and is the glue that holds the whole crazy train together.

He's one of the very few CEOs who's actually worth the stock options and accolades thrown at him. And he's surrounded himself with some scary-talented ppl too. I almost hate to give the guy such props because he's such a jerk IRL, but there you are.
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KenB said:
It wasn't until 2009 that the hardware was there to make a tablet computer cheap enough, fast enough, light enough and with a battery that lasted long enough to be usable. Apple merely capitalized on the fact that the premature launch of the early tablets made the other manufacturers reluctant to try one more time -- so they supersized the iPod Touch and counted on their fan base to fall in line like they usually do.

I'm not knocking Apple or the iPad -- which I think is a fantastic device -- it's just not all that revolutionary. Evolutionary, yes. Apple is already watching its smartphone market share evaporate. The same will happen with the tablet market over the next 18 months.


I completely agree though about who will stick with a traditional PC/laptop and who will use a tablet. It looks like Ellison will end up mostly right after all though. Cloud computing is thin client all the way.
The hardware is nice. But that isn't the clincher.

Historically, tablets have always had crap for software. Crap in quantity and genre, and crap in being coded to suit a touchscreen interface like Apple cooked up.
 

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SystemShock said:
To be fair, Apple didn't just capitalize on the timing... they also did some nice work in design and custom silicon, including the A4 chip. Many of Apple's competitors were pretty surprised when the iPad came out... they had been expecting it to be twice the cost with half the battery life. Apple also leveraged the ton of iPhone/iOS apps that were already out there. Timing alone isn't why the iPad knocked it out of the park.

Far as market share goes, I don't think anyone expects Apple to have something like 75 percent market share in either smartphones or tablet PCs, long-term... there's just too much large entrenched competition in those areas for Apple to own the market the way they have in music players. Rio and Creative are no Nokia, Google, and HP (Sony was around in digital music players in the early days, but their strategy there was so laughably bad that no one could've won with it).

All that said, Apple will still have a pretty nice chunk of both markets long-term (no doubt concentrated at the more-profitable high-end), and both are markets they didn't have a presence in before. Big win for both the company and any AAPL shareholders out there, no matter how you slice it.

And the crazy part is, Apple seems capable of doing this over and over again, in other markets as well. I think the only thing that can really stop them is Jobs passing away or retiring... as big an a-hole as he often is, he seems to understand what users want better than most anybody, and is the glue that holds the whole crazy train together.

He's one of the very few CEOs who's actually worth the stock options and accolades thrown at him. And he's surrounded himself with some scary-talented ppl too. I almost hate to give the guy such props because he's such a jerk IRL, but there you are.
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Regaridng the iPad, timing has a huge amount to do with it. Look at it this way: what did --err, *does*, the iPad have for competition right now? The closest devices are the Kindle, the Nook and Sony's reader. And then Android smartphones. Samsung's tab isn't out yet and netbooks don't count. The market was ripe for a large format tablet and Apple/Jobs timed it perfectly. One of the key things that leads me to this conclusion is that the iPad and iPhone/iPod run the same iOS -- one that isn't optimized for the screen size of the iPad. iPod apps look odd on an iPad and Apple isn't usually that sloppy. Android will have the same problem and I think it's why it has taken so long to bring Android based tablets to market -- even Google is saying that 2.2 isn't tablet worthy. If the iPad came out 6 months from now it would be just another tablet that doesn't do as much as the competitors.

I don't like Apple at all. I've never liked their OSes -- any of them -- but that's a personal thing and I will not deny or knock that Apple puts out some super slick products. They're masters of taking seemingly disconnected ideas and components, creating a product from them and then creating the market for that product. Few companies have ever been as adept as Apple is at that. I don't know that there is another person alive right now with the vision and ability that Jobs possesses. I would not want to be an Apple shareholder the day he dies or calls it quits.
 

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terry b said:
The guy who really had it right was Ken Olsen. Our mantra at DEC in the early 80's was "The network is the computer" and I laugh out loud every time the Google lads try to make it sound like they have come up with something so incredible.

History is littered with visionaries who had great technological ideas but lacked the nuts and bolts to actually implement. Look at Leonardo.


I was in middle school in the early 80s. :D

But I laugh too when I hear stuff like that. Google scares me a bit.
 

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eminence grease
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KenB said:
I was in middle school in the early 80s. :D

But I laugh too when I hear stuff like that. Google scares me a bit.
Just about everyone was. While I was off working.

Olsen had it right - thin clients, network storage, hosted apps and data. But lacked the network and the unified vision the industry. That time of course was also the birth of the PC, and everyone was heading in the opposite direction - your own Univac right there on your desk. Olsen completely missed that boat.

What goes around.
 

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Marc said:
The hardware is nice. But that isn't the clincher.

Historically, tablets have always had crap for software. Crap in quantity and genre, and crap in being coded to suit a touchscreen interface like Apple cooked up.

No disagreement here.
 

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KenB said:
Regaridng the iPad, timing has a huge amount to do with it. Look at it this way: what did --err, *does*, the iPad have for competition right now? The closest devices are the Kindle, the Nook and Sony's reader. And then Android smartphones. Samsung's tab isn't out yet and netbooks don't count. The market was ripe for a large format tablet and Apple/Jobs timed it perfectly.
My point wasn't that timing didn't have anything to do with it, only that it didn't have everything to do with it. If it was *only* the timing, then anyone could've been first to release a new tablet, and it would've had the impact the iPad did.

But do many ppl really think that if, say, Dell had brought out a tablet in April instead of Apple, it would be having the same impact as the iPad? Not many do.

The reason why is because you have to deliver on more than just the timing. You have to have something that's compelling in terms of software, hardware, user interface/ease-of-use, and price, and that looks like it has a future as well. Apple delivered on all counts, pretty much.

I doubt most of the PC makers could've knocked it out of the park like that. But if you doubt my doubt, look at something like a Dell DJ vs an iPod of the same era, as just one example:









Btw, I would say that netbooks do sorta count... that's what many ppl compare the iPad to, even on this forum. TerryB even has a sarcastic signature based on that. :lol:

I also have to wonder how the netbook is going to make out long-term... seems to me like they're going to be squeezed by smartphones from below and tablets head-on.


One of the key things that leads me to this conclusion is that the iPad and iPhone/iPod run the same iOS -- one that isn't optimized for the screen size of the iPad. iPod apps look odd on an iPad and Apple isn't usually that sloppy.
I believe devs can re-write their iPhone apps for the iPad's screen size fairly easily. And the nice thing from the devs' point of view is that they only have to really worry about three devices when writing for iOS... the iPhone, iPod Touch (which has the same screen size and res as the iPhone), and iPad. Compare that to writing and testing software that can run on literally dozens or hundreds of different devices... this can be fairly nightmarish. :(

If the iPad came out 6 months from now it would be just another tablet that doesn't do as much as the competitors.
With respect, I doubt this. Apple does both the hardware and the software, so they integrate it all together better than the PC makers. Not to mention that if Apple hadn't released the iPad, we'd still likely be waiting for the PC makers to release their own offerings... they don't usually like to be the first ones into a space, they prefer that someone else (often Apple) creates the market, and then they try to jump in. They're usually 'fast followers', not innovators.

I don't like Apple at all. I've never liked their OSes -- any of them -- but that's a personal thing and I will not deny or knock that Apple puts out some super slick products. They're masters of taking seemingly disconnected ideas and components, creating a product from them and then creating the market for that product. Few companies have ever been as adept as Apple is at that. I don't know that there is another person alive right now with the vision and ability that Jobs possesses. I would not want to be an Apple shareholder the day he dies or calls it quits.
Don't know why you don't like 'em (only things that really annoy me about 'em are their prices on Macs, and Jobs' heavy-handed tactics with some bloggers and rumor sites), but I wholeheartedly agree with the rest.

They seem to understand users' wants better than anyone else, and their business model is just entirely different from almost anyone else in the industry... Dell and the rest are mostly about loading someone else's software and assembling someone else's parts into beige boxes as cheaply as possible while squeezing their supply chains for every cent, while Apple is only too happy to write their own OS and included software, design much of 'the whole widget', and have specialty retail stores besides.

In fact, that's their advantage, in an industry that used to believe that's exactly what you don't want to do.

I'm not sure Apple could thrive like it has if there was another company just like it doing all the things it does as well as it does... but I'm sure glad they're around. Computers and electronics in general would be a lot more boring if they weren't here to be imitated by just about everyone else.

Along those lines, do you know what a common nickname for Apple is within Microsoft? "R&D South." :wink5:

That said, I wish the PC makers would do a better job at competing in some areas, then Mac prices might come down some. An arrogant, 'fat n happy' Apple will increasingly become a PITA for its users to deal with... that's just the nature of companies/people. :(
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spyderman said:
I'll bet you they're gonna sell hundreds of millions of iPads world wide. China alone should be huge... This thing stands to replace the laptop.
add +1 to the list.

I just gave my mom one this weekend for her _0th birthday. Its a laptop-replacer for her for sure. She travels lots, emails on the go, uses the hell outta Contacts & Calendar... so it couldn't be more of a perfect fit. And a lot less bulk for her to schlep through airports.

Add iBooks to replace her Kindle that she loves, and maybe Netflix instant and its FTW all around.




// 'scuse me while I go search for Terry's list of apps he likes for it.
 
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