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So were some way through the Giro now and was wondering if anybody has changed their minds about Jans chances in the TDF. Were you once skeptical and now believe he stands a chance, Or if any of you who thought he truly stood a chance of the top step on the podium are you now doubting that wisdom?
Personally i would love for him to win and ill be cheering him on but realistically i think Ivan will take the TDF top spot regardless of the Gir result.
 

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Piles said:
So were some way through the Giro now and was wondering if anybody has changed their minds about Jans chances in the TDF. Were you once skeptical and now believe he stands a chance, Or if any of you who thought he truly stood a chance of the top step on the podium are you now doubting that wisdom?
Personally i would love for him to win and ill be cheering him on but realistically i think Ivan will take the TDF top spot regardless of the Gir result.
Don't think there's enough evidence for either decision - anyone who's already had their minds made up are just biased and if they happen to be right - well, they flipped a coin and got lucky.
 

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I always remember...

how everyone always said he was fat and out of shape, yet in July he's always there at the end, so I haven't changed my mind at all. I still think he's one of the top contenders for the Tour. I think people and the media just have to have some thing to get all worked up about.:cryin:
 

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Piles said:
So were some way through the Giro now and was wondering if anybody has changed their minds about Jans chances in the TDF. Were you once skeptical and now believe he stands a chance, Or if any of you who thought he truly stood a chance of the top step on the podium are you now doubting that wisdom?
Personally i would love for him to win and ill be cheering him on but realistically i think Ivan will take the TDF top spot regardless of the Gir result.

So what if Fatty McFatterson won a dead flat TT. It means his power is great but that doesn't mean he'll sniff Basso and crew on the Big Cols. Jan always seems to do his best when people expect the least. 2003 he was barely allowed in Le Tour and bam he is riding great--all up to the part when it really mattered and he attacked on the Tourmalet and then blew the final by crashing. When the pressure is truly on Jan he won't win. It's when the pressure is off that he succeeds--No Lance=pressure on. TdF Podium at best but the top step will slip away once again. Some guys just have the make up to finish 2nd and the more he's aged the more Jan looks like that guy. Sure, he has some solid wins but even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes (The The hint, hint, 1997 reference) .
 

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As much as I would like to see Jan win the Tour again, I don't think he'll be able to do it. He'll win a TT stage or two but he will simply not be able to limit damage in the mountains. Plus he attacks at the wrong time and doesn't attack at the right time.

It's too bad. He seems like he's a great guy.
 

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Didn't do that badly today -- he was clearly not "testing his legs" to stay with the lead group, and isn't exactly famed for his descending skills, but still made it in 2/3 of the way up the field.

I think he's coming pretty good. Assuming no major issues, it'll be hard for Jan NOT to lose whatever extra weight he's got in the last week of the Giro...

I think the question now becomes -- how long can Basso keep this up? He's absolutely shattering everyone else at this point. If he can do that in May, AND in July, I'll be friggin' impressed.
 

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teoteoteo said:
No Lance=pressure on. TdF Podium at best but the top step will slip away once again. Some guys just have the make up to finish 2nd and the more he's aged the more Jan looks like that guy. Sure, he has some solid wins but even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.
I think it's awfully difficult to predict who will win, but..

Let's see, you've contradicted yourself, made assertions that bend logic and you ignore the fact that Ullrich already has a TdF victory in his palmares. So much for having the makeup to only place second. And arguing that there was no competition (or pressure) in 1997 is rubbish. Perhaps he didn't have much pressure in relation to recent years, but I'm sure he was feeling the squeeze during the third week.
 

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Argentius said:
Didn't do that badly today -- he was clearly not "testing his legs" to stay with the lead group, and isn't exactly famed for his descending skills, but still made it in 2/3 of the way up the field.
Not only that, but Ullrich does not like the cold and never seems to perform well in it. Looks like a pretty good training ride for him.
 

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il sogno said:
As much as I would like to see Jan win the Tour again, I don't think he'll be able to do it. He'll win a TT stage or two but he will simply not be able to limit damage in the mountains. Plus he attacks at the wrong time and doesn't attack at the right time.

It's too bad. He seems like he's a great guy.
Well Sonja, I am going in the other direction. When he screwed up in the TDF since 97, it was because he was always trying to counter Marco or Lance. If the fitness and racing edge that he gets from the Giro carry over into July, he will be in a good position as the favorite. Basso still has another week of the Giro, he looked unbeatable last year and got sick. Their have been many strong riders who had some fraility. Basso may win the Giro, but can he pull it together again in July? It seems like alot of pressure to put on him and the biggest battle may be to keep his head in the current race. Maybe with the field wide open, Jan will win again.
 

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Ullrich will win the Tour. (Landis is my sentimental favorite). Jan is just too good for Basso to come in not 100% after burying himself in the Giro and expect to do the double over a fresh Ullrich. Ain't gonna happen. Now Jan just has to keep from riding through car windows and he's set.
 

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The The said:
I think it's awfully difficult to predict who will win, but..

Let's see, you've contradicted yourself, made assertions that bend logic and you ignore the fact that Ullrich already has a TdF victory in his palmares. So much for having the makeup to only place second. And arguing that there was no competition (or pressure) in 1997 is rubbish. Perhaps he didn't have much pressure in relation to recent years, but I'm sure he was feeling the squeeze during the third week.
1997 was a long time ago and it's easy to ignore. He's a talented guy but occasional glimpses of greatness are overshadowed by his habitual lack of preparation.
 

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Ullrich in the front group

Everybody's been saying "Well, if Jan even finishes the Giro, that'll be good."

The past couple of days, ones that don't make any difference for Jan except training, he's been riding up there with Di Luca, Cunego, and the rest in the peloton -- no gruppetto days any more!

Good on him, then.
 
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