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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
With the time gap SO close this year..... And I realize there are two horrific mtn stages & the ride of truth to come....

Just suppose the time gap for the top three riders is 30 seconds on the last stage at Champs-Élysées. And say there is maybe 10-15 seconds within the second & third place riders....( when has that happened before) Will ALL riders respect the "tradition" and not attack....

I know last year , Levi respected Evans for the second place finish, BUT he had Contador out front.... If levi attacked, evans might have attracked contador... Not that any of that would have played out... but I am just saying....
 

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I would venture to guess that nothing would happen other than the normal sprint finish.

It would be way to difficult to get a 30, 15 or even 10 second gap on a flat ending like the Champs-Elysees. The other teams would chase and it would just be a really fast ending with sprinters coming to the front at the end to win.

If there were time bonuses...maybe, but that's a "HUGE" maybe. Since there isn't not only is it unlikely, but unrealistic.
 

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I don't know about that. There's never been 6 riders within a minute of each other this far into the tour. 30 seconds may be too much, but if it's closer and if there are guys just out of a podium place it could be wide open. Breaks have gotten away before on the last stage; Jeff Pierce even soloed away in 1987. What if Schleck or VDV were within 10 seconds? It would be a great stage to see guys trying to gap Evans and get clear. I think the tour organizers would be happy with such a dramatic finish as well.
 

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Even if the gaps were 1 or 2 seconds after Saturday's TT, there would be no GC racing on Sunday.

Beyond the tradition of the final stage, it's too flat to make selection, ends with laps on the Champs Elysee so there's no hiding, and the sprinters want this one, so breaks will get pulled back.
 

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Evans had a plan to attack last year, but Contador and his team controlled the speed very well and he would never had got clear.
 

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The top 3 were all very close last year. I think Chris Horner was quoted saying that he wanted to race for it (28 seconds?) but that never materialized. I can just see poor Horner in the back of the team car biting his knuckles after the DS told him that they wouldn't. lol

I heard Levi say himself that he would not go after Cadel's 2nd place. He referred to it at "pulling a Vinokourov".
 

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The gaps will be bigger

I think we will see some super aggressive racing in the Alps. CSC has to come out of the Alps with some real time on Evans. Schleck (Frank) will need probably 2 minutes on Cadel going into the TT, Sastre and Schleck #2 need even more if they want to win.

Menchov, Vande Velde and Evans are pretty close in terms of TT ability. Evans has the most to lose among the 3, he won't attack and really he shouldn't CSC has the numbers it would be dumb for him to try and take them on solo. Same with Menchov but, he will attack anyway. Vande Velde has been the revelation of the race, I think when the **** hits the fan tomorrow he will be able to go with the CSC attacks better than Evans and come out of the Alps with time on Evans and Yellow in Paris.

Can I get an amen?
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Amen!

Rev Big Ring said:
I think we will see some super aggressive racing in the Alps. CSC has to come out of the Alps with some real time on Evans. Schleck (Frank) will need probably 2 minutes on Cadel going into the TT, Sastre and Schleck #2 need even more if they want to win.

Menchov, Vande Velde and Evans are pretty close in terms of TT ability. Evans has the most to lose among the 3, he won't attack and really he shouldn't CSC has the numbers it would be dumb for him to try and take them on solo. Same with Menchov but, he will attack anyway. Vande Velde has been the revelation of the race, I think when the **** hits the fan tomorrow he will be able to go with the CSC attacks better than Evans and come out of the Alps with time on Evans and Yellow in Paris.

Can I get an amen?
AMen!
 

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Lemur-ing
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Well, if Fabian Cancellera was 30 seconds behind on a top few spot, maybe he could get away. Other than that. Nope.
 

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EndoMadness said:
Not so fast.....Vino attacked Levi on the Champs in 2004 (?? ) to leapfrog him into 3rd or 4th. But that had time bonus' at the finish.

rembeber levi being a little pissed....but it was his fault for not covering the move.
the race organizers had decided to eliminate the time bonuses because it was raining that day, and they didnt want any field sprints at the checkpoints to cause crashes. later, when it cleared up, they put them back in for the finish, and nobody told levi. he let vino go because he didnt think there were any time bonuses available.

30 seconds is too much on a flat stage of this importance. even 10 seconds is huge. to get that much time, you couldnt leave too early, because they would have too much time to reel you back in. it wouldnt be like a normal breakaway that they would give several minutes to. you cant leave too close to the end, because even if you got a gap, you wouldnt have time to build it up to 30 seconds. and you have to figure, not only would the other GC contender teams be chasing you, but every team with a sprinter worth anything would be chasing. the final sprint in paris starts so early anyways, they wind up several k out, just so its hard for people to jump out front.

so basically, you have to be a monster to be able to attack the peloton, build up a 30 second lead, and then hold off the approx 150+ world class professional bike riders who are trying to chase you down. if you were able to do that, i would assume you would test positive for like a dozen different things right after your miraculous win.
 

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JohnnyChance said:
the race organizers had decided to eliminate the time bonuses because it was raining that day, and they didnt want any field sprints at the checkpoints to cause crashes. later, when it cleared up, they put them back in for the finish, and nobody told levi. he let vino go because he didnt think there were any time bonuses available.

30 seconds is too much on a flat stage of this importance. even 10 seconds is huge. to get that much time, you couldnt leave too early, because they would have too much time to reel you back in. it wouldnt be like a normal breakaway that they would give several minutes to. you cant leave too close to the end, because even if you got a gap, you wouldnt have time to build it up to 30 seconds. and you have to figure, not only would the other GC contender teams be chasing you, but every team with a sprinter worth anything would be chasing. the final sprint in paris starts so early anyways, they wind up several k out, just so its hard for people to jump out front.

so basically, you have to be a monster to be able to attack the peloton, build up a 30 second lead, and then hold off the approx 150+ world class professional bike riders who are trying to chase you down. if you were able to do that, i would assume you would test positive for like a dozen different things right after your miraculous win.
Unless it's Cancellera, Voigt, Millar and a couple more top TT riders who get in the break. :D
 

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JohnnyChance said:
the final sprint in paris starts so early anyways, they wind up several k out, just so its hard for people to jump out front.
No they don't. They allow the yellow jersey's team to take a couple of ceremonial laps around Champs Ellysees- it is typically a nice comfortable pace. Everyone cheers for the yellow, then the sprinters teams go to the front and start to jockey for lead out positions.
 
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