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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Reasons for decline relative to other riders?

1. age?

2. change in position and not as aero?

3. less power?

4. sandbagging?

5. more focus on climbing?

other?

note - not posted in doping forum so PED's not part of this discussion
 

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LA and time trial

Another consideration is the time trial bikes themselves. There have been changes mandated by the UCI, which also make them (rider and machine). I also think LA is experiencing a decline in aerobic capacity (occurs naturally as we age).
 

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I'd venture to say a combination of Age, Position and Focus on Climbing....with position being the least impact of the three, and a focus on climbing being the largest impact given that there is only one ITT at the TDF this year.
 

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This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.
 

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spiffomatic said:
This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.

I don't know that I agree with you, but I wouldn't be surprised if you are right.
 

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spiffomatic said:
This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.
I agree wholeheartedly. To quote Pantani' "I also have a Ferrari, but mine is parked in my garage."
________
DEPAKOTE LAWYER
 

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good point. (comment deleted). It was thought pretty strange at the time (the Lopes thing). Sadly I remember when I didn't used to be this cynical.
 

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What the what???
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I hate to say it, because I really do like LA, but I think it's a combination of 1, 3 and one "other" (the TT course itself). I would like to think he was sandbagging or saving himself for something incredible in July, but I think time is just starting to catch up to him, slowing him down that little bit more while many of those around him are peaking. As for the course, though, it wouldn't be the first time he chose not to take risks on a relatively wet TT course, particularly one like this with multiple twists toward the end.
 

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Yes, maybe to the other option. But also age, the time off, his hectic schedule due to his rise in celebrity status. His focus could not be as strong and he seems to be pulled in many directions other than to his bike. It happens to a lot of elite athletes that become a celebrity...
 

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spiffomatic said:
This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.
Next time please READ the OP (non PED's) first before answering. For an old guy that's not as strong, he didn't do too badly placing 2nd overall in GC. And these will be some of the same guys that he will be racing against in July. Of course you factor in Basso, Nibali, Evans, Menchov, maybe Sastre & of course AC & things look pretty interesting.

The reason for LA's erratic tt is due to a couple of things. Its no secret that LA has long suffered with back problems so as one gets older & less flexible has led to him work on his tt position.

The other reason has been written about in numerous articles. The drop in explosive power that comes with age. Unfortunately age at some point will affect all athletes & comes a time to bow out gracefully. I love Michael Jordan but it was hard to watch his comeback. As for LA, I think its too soon for any conjecture just yet. Lets wait till after July.
 

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He's almost 40 years old, took several years off, just went from 7th to 2nd in TdS based on his ITT ride. And we're talking decline...

800lb gorilla? If not currently and this is how he's performing?

My guess is a bit of age, a bit of sandbagging (certainly wouldn't be the first time for him), a good chunk of not wanting to break his collarbone on a wet corner, and a touch of no focus due to only 1 ITT in TdF.
 

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bikerjulio said:
back in the day when I was running running marathons a certain Carlos Lopes won the Olympic marathon at age 37 and maybe plus. It's not age yet for Lance.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Lopes
Constantina Tomescu-Dita won the women's Olympic marathon in 2008 at age 38, becoming the oldest winner of an Olympic marathon in history.
 

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tommyrhodes said:
I like lance and I'd love to see him win in July. But I agree, this discussion cannot be had without the 800 pound gorilla.
Only if you include that 800 pound gorilla for all the other contenders....so take the gorilla away because all his peers have it on their shoulders as well.

This is a discussion about why his results have declined compared to other top level contenders. He used to dominate both the climbs and ITT's, now he's barely in the top 10, or out of it in the ITT's compared to his peers.

Why? That's the discussion....:thumbsup:
 

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InfiniteLoop said:
just went from 7th to 2nd in TdS based on his ITT ride.
Actually, his time wasn't very impressive vs the field. Over a minute back in 11th and behind Levi and Kloden. A more important fact than his podium appearance.

Aside from that, my apologies for stirring the pot. The question seemed akin to watching a ford festiva race the indy 500 and then discussing whether it placed last due to tire selection, wheel toe-in or perhaps too little downforce.

That aside, I will agree that age, interests outside of cycling, and time away from the bike don't help his cause. Under the assumption that the sport has turned a corner of sorts, and being a fan of great cyclists and performances, LA was a hell of a racer before and remains so, when he's on top of his game.
 

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spiffomatic said:
This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.
it's pretty much covered by options 1. and 3.
 

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haole from the mainland
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spiffomatic said:
Actually, his time wasn't very impressive vs the field. Over a minute back in 11th and behind Levi and Kloden. A more important fact than his podium appearance.
Levi & Kloden are both very good TTers.

And if you look at most of the names in the top 10, you see TT specialists: Cancellara, Martin, Zabriskie, Larsson. It's not as if Lance came in 11th against a bunch of pikers.
 
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