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Looks like LA has a time to beat!

Jalabert does the London Marathon

In between working for France télévisions, former top French cyclist Laurent Jalabert has been keeping himself in shape by running. Jalabert competed in the London Marathon last Sunday, and finished 932nd of the men with a time of 2:57:39. It was his second attempt at a marathon, after running in New York last year, where he took 2:55:00.



Will he beat Jaja?
 

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ultimobici said:
Looks like LA has a time to beat!

Jalabert does the London Marathon

In between working for France télévisions, former top French cyclist Laurent Jalabert has been keeping himself in shape by running. Jalabert competed in the London Marathon last Sunday, and finished 932nd of the men with a time of 2:57:39. It was his second attempt at a marathon, after running in New York last year, where he took 2:55:00.



Will he beat Jaja?
My guess is that he'll either beat that time, or he won't even bother racing. I don't think he stands to gain anything if he can't finish in under 3 hours. If his only goal was to run A marathon and not worry about his finishing time, I don't see why he would just choose to run a high profile race like the NYC Marathon. There's likely something more going on here like: a) he's getting a hefty appearance fee, b) he's using the grand stage of the NYC Marathon to raise $ for his foundation (harder to raise big $ by running the Podunk Marathon), or c) he intends to do well and wants the extra attention.

On a side note, former Telekom/T-Mobile rider Rolf Aldag finished the Hamburg Marathon last Saturday in a net time of 2:42:54. Hamburg's course is probably not as challenging as NYC's, but that's still moving!
 

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Run1stBike2nd said:
My guess is that he'll either beat that time, or he won't even bother racing. I don't think he stands to gain anything if he can't finish in under 3 hours. If his only goal was to run A marathon and not worry about his finishing time, I don't see why he would just choose to run a high profile race like the NYC Marathon. There's likely something more going on here like: a) he's getting a hefty appearance fee, b) he's using the grand stage of the NYC Marathon to raise $ for his foundation (harder to raise big $ by running the Podunk Marathon), or c) he intends to do well and wants the extra attention.

On a side note, former Telekom/T-Mobile rider Rolf Aldag finished the Hamburg Marathon last Saturday in a net time of 2:42:54. Hamburg's course is probably not as challenging as NYC's, but that's still moving!
That is impressive of Aldag! He must have trained quite a bit!
My best marathon time is 2:47 and trust me, you need to get a solid amount of training to get to that level. I don't think Lance can beat Aldag's time, but he has a good shot at beating JaJa.
 

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Aldag also turned in a blazing 1:17:xx 1/2 Marathon in Bonn 3 weeks prior to the Hamburg Marathon. According to T-Mobile's web site, his ultimate goal is to qualify for the Ironman Triathlon in Hawaii but admits that he's finding the swimming to be difficult.

As a marathoner & duathlete myself, I find this all quite fascinating as I know plenty of hardcore bikers who admit that they can't run worth a lick.
 

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In Lance's favor he did start as a tri guy, so perhaps he will be half decent at running. I think it's a slam dunk for finishing under 3 hours. Not sure how low he can go though.

I've never ran a full marathon, and my best half is 1:31:xx. I'd hate to try now. I'd probably be 6 hours.
 

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Aldag's time is smoking fast, but Armstrong won't have a problem besting it if he hooks up with Dr. Ferrari.
 

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I think you guys are underestimating Lance. He is a former pro triathlete and has one of the biggest motors in the world. He could train three days a week for 3 months and run sub 2:45. With more training I'd say he could run 2:30 easy.
 

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What are you smoking......

rdub said:
I think you guys are underestimating Lance. He is a former pro triathlete and has one of the biggest motors in the world. He could train three days a week for 3 months and run sub 2:45. With more training I'd say he could run 2:30 easy.
train 3 days a week for 3 months and run sub 2:45......LOL. He'd be lucky to break 3:00 with that training.

I've run sub 2:30......believe me, even with his engine, he would need to seriously train to break 2:45. He's never run this distance........I'd love to be running with him when he hits about 19 miles.

He says he's not training seriously (I know could be a bluff), and he looks like he's put on some weight. I think this is about publicity.

My guess is he doesn't get close to 2:50........

3 days/week and he breaks 2:45......ROFLMAO. Thanks I needed that.

Len
 

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Don't underestimate natural ability

Len J said:
train 3 days a week for 3 months and run sub 2:45......LOL. He'd be lucky to break 3:00 with that training.
Len
I have a friend I ran Cross-Country with in College. After a 5-year hiatus from running, he trained for 2 months (4 days/week) and ran a 2:36 marathon.

He also broke 1 hour in a 40K Time Trial after riding for less than 4 months.

Damn...how annoying is that? I have to train my ass off....There are some people out there who just "have it".

I remember reading a quote from Lance stating that he thought he could break 2:15 if he trained for it.
 

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Len J said:
train 3 days a week for 3 months and run sub 2:45......LOL. He'd be lucky to break 3:00 with that training.

I've run sub 2:30......believe me, even with his engine, he would need to seriously train to break 2:45. He's never run this distance........I'd love to be running with him when he hits about 19 miles.

He says he's not training seriously (I know could be a bluff), and he looks like he's put on some weight. I think this is about publicity.

My guess is he doesn't get close to 2:50........

3 days/week and he breaks 2:45......ROFLMAO. Thanks I needed that.

Len
Agree with Len. He does have big engine, but it's a cycling engine, not running.
I can see Aldag or other scrawny guys, like Voight do well in running, but that takes a lot of effort. Otherwise the butt and quad muscles built up from riding are a huge hinderance in running - you want to be very lean with strong hamstrings.

LA is obsessive kind, if he obsesses about running enough he can get a decent time, eventually. But it would take him some tme to build up to that level. Marathon is all about pounding out the miles, and it's the kind of pounding your body doesn't experience in riding the bike.

Wasn't Lance doing some duathlon (mountain bike/trail running) in Vermont or something a few years back? If I remember correctly he wasn't so quick with his running - maybe mid-6 minute miles for 3-5 mile trail distance? Those are not terribly well calibrated and it's on trails, but I can see LA doing anything between 6:30 and 7:00 minute pace for NYC marathon, not much faster. If anything, I would predict he will overestimate his abilities, start way too fast and end up finishing way back.

To get below 6:30 pace would require some specific training after some solid mileage buildup, which just won't happen this year.

In all fairness, I wouldn't expect Meb Keflezgi to be able to finish olympic distance triathlon in under 2 hours any time soon either.
 

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55x11 said:
Agree with Len. He does have big engine, but it's a cycling engine, not running.
I can see Aldag or other scrawny guys, like Voight do well in running, but that takes a lot of effort. Otherwise the butt and quad muscles built up from riding are a huge hinderance in running - you want to be very lean with strong hamstrings.

LA is obsessive kind, if he obsesses about running enough he can get a decent time, eventually. But it would take him some tme to build up to that level. Marathon is all about pounding out the miles, and it's the kind of pounding your body doesn't experience in riding the bike.

Wasn't Lance doing some duathlon (mountain bike/trail running) in Vermont or something a few years back? If I remember correctly he wasn't so quick with his running - maybe mid-6 minute miles for 3-5 mile trail distance? Those are not terribly well calibrated and it's on trails, but I can see LA doing anything between 6:30 and 7:00 minute pace for NYC marathon, not much faster. If anything, I would predict he will overestimate his abilities, start way too fast and end up finishing way back.

To get below 6:30 pace would require some specific training after some solid mileage buildup, which just won't happen this year.

In all fairness, I wouldn't expect Meb Keflezgi to be able to finish olympic distance triathlon in under 2 hours any time soon either.
I know nothing about running, but I'm really looking forward to seeing his time and seeing you guys eat your words. Lance would never ever train half-azzed for anything. He's not going to run if he's not fully prepared. And he's not going to prepare to run a 3hr marathon.
If anone on this board truthfully claims to run a sub 2:30, Lance, an aerobic freak, can do it with a fraction of the training.
 

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55x11 said:
Agree with Len. He does have big engine, but it's a cycling engine, not running.
I can see Aldag or other scrawny guys, like Voight do well in running, but that takes a lot of effort. Otherwise the butt and quad muscles built up from riding are a huge hinderance in running - you want to be very lean with strong hamstrings.

LA is obsessive kind, if he obsesses about running enough he can get a decent time, eventually. But it would take him some tme to build up to that level. Marathon is all about pounding out the miles, and it's the kind of pounding your body doesn't experience in riding the bike.

Wasn't Lance doing some duathlon (mountain bike/trail running) in Vermont or something a few years back? If I remember correctly he wasn't so quick with his running - maybe mid-6 minute miles for 3-5 mile trail distance? Those are not terribly well calibrated and it's on trails, but I can see LA doing anything between 6:30 and 7:00 minute pace for NYC marathon, not much faster. If anything, I would predict he will overestimate his abilities, start way too fast and end up finishing way back.

To get below 6:30 pace would require some specific training after some solid mileage buildup, which just won't happen this year.

In all fairness, I wouldn't expect Meb Keflezgi to be able to finish olympic distance triathlon in under 2 hours any time soon either.

Yeah, but LA started with Tri's and I think he competed in some Ironman's, so he's done the distance before. According to people he competed with he was outstanding on the swim and bike, but fell off on the run. He's older now though, and understands how to train his body much better now, I think he'll do better than we think, but I don't think he'll shatter any records. I do think that he will compete in Kona within the next three years.
 

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physasst said:
I do think that he will compete in Kona within the next three years.
Absolutely not. You think training for a bike race can be miserable? There is no way he would put himself through that. You have to QUALIFY for Kona, and he'd be racing against other guys who do this full time, and who are also, believe it or not, very talented.

Maybe he'll train semi-seriously for a marathon, and maybe he'll run around Aldag's time, but I personally doubt it. I think he retired for a reason.
 

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Jesse D Smith said:
I know nothing about running, but I'm really looking forward to seeing his time and seeing you guys eat your words. Lance would never ever train half-azzed for anything. He's not going to run if he's not fully prepared. And he's not going to prepare to run a 3hr marathon.
If anone on this board truthfully claims to run a sub 2:30, Lance, an aerobic freak, can do it with a fraction of the training.
I am interested in seeing how he does as well, and if he can run anywhere close to 2:30, I will be happy to admit I was wrong, and that will truly astound me.

Here's Lance's result from this month's 5K race:

http://www.doitsports.com/newresults3/client/22068_22102_2006.html

Lance ran 18:24, which is 5:55 pace. I doubt he took being beaten by 51-year old lightly.

based on this result alone, I will predict no better than 2:50 for Lance, most likely in 2:55-3:00 range.
 

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It's worth remembering that LA has done duathlons in recent off-seasons. In fact, I recall reading about a duathlon he did last winter. A local triathlete who was pretty good was actually ahead of LA after the bike portion, but LA smoked him on the run. I think it's fair to say that LA is not starting from scratch on this running thing.

Also, LA is an athlete whose physiological qualities have been measured over a period of decades. I recall reading another article in which physiologist/trainer types used that data record to speculate on what LA could do in the marathon, assuming he trained for it intensively. If memory serves, the MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate was like 2:30-2:40. The more optimistic projections were indeed in the 2:15 range. Of course, we don't know how hard he'll train, but it seems to me that if Aldag can run 2:42, LA can, too.
 

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55x11 said:
I am interested in seeing how he does as well, and if he can run anywhere close to 2:30, I will be happy to admit I was wrong, and that will truly astound me.

Here's Lance's result from this month's 5K race:

http://www.doitsports.com/newresults3/client/22068_22102_2006.html

Lance ran 18:24, which is 5:55 pace. I doubt he took being beaten by 51-year old lightly.

based on this result alone, I will predict no better than 2:50 for Lance, most likely in 2:55-3:00 range.

Here's off-road duathlon Lance did a few years back:

http://www.runnertriathletenews.com/features/dirtydu_jan2003.html

Dirty Duathlon
Sunday, December 8, 2002
Rocky Hill Ranch, Texas
(3-mile/12-mile/3-mile)

MEN
1) Lance Armstrong, 1:36:05 (18:57/55:28/20:16)

His 18:57 for the first 3M trail course is about on par with his recent 5K result. I doubt he can maintain 6 minute pace for 26 miles if he can barely do it for 3. Anyone who thinks he can beat Aldag's 2:42 time is out to lunch.

Also, here's a hillarious article by none other than Michele Ferrari:

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=indepth.view&id=52

If Lance really claimed he could run 2:15 marathon, the way he was self-confident of sub-17min 5K on no running-specific training, I think he is in for a bit of reality check in November.

Also, I never saw any evidence of him doing an ironman as a youngster. Can anyone verify this? What was his time/splots?
 

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MaestroXC said:
Absolutely not. You think training for a bike race can be miserable? There is no way he would put himself through that. You have to QUALIFY for Kona, and he'd be racing against other guys who do this full time, and who are also, believe it or not, very talented.

Maybe he'll train semi-seriously for a marathon, and maybe he'll run around Aldag's time, but I personally doubt it. I think he retired for a reason.

I don't know, he started with Tri's, and apparently did pretty good at them, I think he's going to get bored with retirement, and maybe start into them again...who knows? I don't believe for one second that he is through with athletic competition. People are wired a certain way, and when you are that ULTRA competitive, you can't just turn it off, it doesn't work that way. Also, the Ironman body would probably give him an exemption to compete in Kona based on the immense increase in media coverage that would give them. So, I don't know, I think we'll see him there, but I could be wrong.
 

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55x11 said:
I am interested in seeing how he does as well, and if he can run anywhere close to 2:30, I will be happy to admit I was wrong, and that will truly astound me.

Here's Lance's result from this month's 5K race:

http://www.doitsports.com/newresults3/client/22068_22102_2006.html

Lance ran 18:24, which is 5:55 pace. I doubt he took being beaten by 51-year old lightly.

based on this result alone, I will predict no better than 2:50 for Lance, most likely in 2:55-3:00 range.
Doesn't your prediction assume that 18:24 represents about the best time LA is capable of achieving? Without knowing how he trained for this 5K, it's hard to say. Of course, 18:24 is a pretty good time, but if anyone can knock 2 or more minutes off that time, it's Armstrong.
 

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harlond said:
Doesn't your prediction assume that 18:24 represents about the best time LA is capable of achieving? Without knowing how he trained for this 5K, it's hard to say. Of course, 18:24 is a pretty good time, but if anyone can knock 2 or more minutes off that time, it's Armstrong.
Well, YMMV, but If he cannot race sub-18 5K easily and regularly by September, then I say his chances of doing sub-3 hour marathon are very slim. My assumption is that over the next couple of months he improves to 17:30 5K time, but not much better.

In order to have a shot at running sub-2:50 he should have no trouble racing sub-17 5K right now with relatively ease. Only then he can put together some high-mileage weeks neccessary for marathon training over the next 5 months or so. If he still needs to build up general running fitness and mileage base, it will leave very little time for marathon-specific training.

Having said all that, marathon is a crap shoot and I have known plenty of people who can run 16-minute 5K in their sleep and do sub-6 minute pace for 20 miles, yet fail to deliver the same kind of effort on marathon day.
 
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