Russian Troll Farmer
I AM an engineer, and I'd like to add my $.02 to this highly hypothetical discussion. Yes, a thinner spoke can cause fatigue at the holes. Fatigue is caused not by tension (that would be more ductile failure), but rather by the number of stress CYCLES of certain tension limits. If the thinner spoke is more elastic, the tension cycle would have greater limits, and will cause fatigue failure quicker than a spoke in which the stress cycle has limits which are less severe. Also, if the spoke goes completely slack during the cycle (as a leading spoke during a heavy climb might), then you will also be adding cyclical impact from the nipple seats into the equation, which will hasten fatigue failure measurably....
I'm no engineer but if they can have an unproven opinion then so can I. I would think that the "elasticity" of thinner gauge spokes like CX-Ray and Laser would lead to LESS spoke hole cracking, not MORE. It's been long opinionated that straight gauge spokes would tend to absorb less shock and therefore transfer it to the rim and hub flanges.