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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Let the speculations begin but here is my winning trio:

1) Hincapie
2) Ballan
3) van Petegem

Yes, fellow schmenges, that's right. I do not think Tommy Gun Boonen will bring home the "beans" this coming Sunday in the Roubaix velodrome.

I wonder how much $ (or €) I would win if I were a betting man ? :D
 

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I heart team Zissou!
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I think you are describing

the placings for 2-4.

To win in the classics, you need lotsa luck, a good team, grinta and some race smarts.

Let's be generous and assume that Hincapie will have at least as luck as Boonen and a relatively good team (not quite as good as QS, now that Hammond is out), and let's assume that Hoste's 2nd place in the Ronde -- which, according to Demol was given the green light by both Demol and Bruyneel -- has slightly miffed Hincapie to the point where this might serve as a suitable proxy for the much needed grinta. That leaves us race smarts.

Race smarts and Hincapie are not intersecting sets.

I've seen Hincapie race in the classics over the past years both in person and on TV and I have talked to him on a few occasions (granted, pre-1999). I really like the guy but let me tell you, he may be strong, he may be a good sprinter, but race smart he is not. Being in Hincapie's race smart part of the brain (the racesmarthalmus) is like sitting in an empty room with one bare bulb shining overhead listening to a solitary chirping cricket. It's like standing alone in the imensity of the Sahara desert with only the blowing wind to keep you company, it's like being the last unpicked and unpickable chocolate mint creme candy in a 100-piece box of chocolates, it's like... well, you get the picture. It's just not a very crowded part of his brain and for that reason alone, I predict that this guy I saw on top of the Koppenberg last week is going to win -- and if he doesn't, it will be another Belgian (my secret pick is for Philippe Gilbert to win after the front group gets sideswiped by a cow that has wandered onto the course -- oh wait, now that I've said it, it's not secret anymore! Disclaimer, I have no plans to encourage any livestock to wander out onto the P-R course and decline any responsibity if that highly likely occurence takes place!)

You read it here first! (OK, maybe not)
 

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philippec said:
Being in Hincapie's race smart part of the brain (the racesmarthalmus) is like sitting in an empty room with one bare bulb shining overhead listening to a solitary chirping cricket. It's like standing alone in the imensity of the Sahara desert with only the blowing wind to keep you company, it's like being the last unpicked and unpickable chocolate mint creme candy in a 100-piece box of chocolates, it's like... well, you get the picture. It's just not a very crowded part of his brain
LOL!:D
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
philippec said:
...

Race smarts and Hincapie are not intersecting sets.

...
You got that right.... but luck will smile upon Big ole George this year.

He will be in a group of 3 at the end and drop them before they get to the velodrome in Roubaix.

... oh. And it's going to rain for the first part of the race and dry for the second.... That's another prediction.

Boonen will miss a crucial break because he's caught behind a crash, not involved though.

I could also predict that Tom is NOT going to wear the UCI Leader jersey but the World Champ jersey and pay the fine.

(btw all of those predictions are coming from the room with the one lightbulb in my rear end :D )

Having fun with it !
 

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LSchoux said:
Boonen will miss a crucial break because he's caught behind a crash, not involved though.
Oh yeah, he's going to miss that crucial break alright when he is caught behind the crash.

But what happens next is even more important.

What you failed to see was the part where he pulls a Andre Tchmil rainy course bunny hop over the strewn riders and bikes (1994!), breaks his front wheel on landing, instantly pops a wheely and motors up to the break on his back wheel where he grabs a wheel proffered to him by the Mavic motorbike that has struggled to catch up with him and pops it in himself after having flung the broken one off to the side -- all without missing a single pedal stroke.

With two wheels firmly on the ground, he sits up on the cobbled section, releases both hands from his handlebar and points to the Carrefour de l'Arbre which is rapidly approaching and says to the other guys in the break "I just thought I'd give you some warning, I'm going to attack just as we turn right in front of the Café". He does what he says and motors away to a second PR. As Boonen crosses the line in victory, Hincapie, 5 kms back, starts to think that if he wants to win, maybe (but only maybe) he should do something. He spends the next 4 .9 kms going over the different options available to him and finally decides to sprint for second, which, to his credit, he gets!

That's my prediction and I'm standing by it!

Philippe
 

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grasso e lento
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I pick....

Roman Luhovyy (Ukr) OTC Doors-Lauretana.....

Why not? You have to throw the underdog in sometimes.


*Dude*
 

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magnolialover said:
So who would you take in a match-up of Boonen versus a Hurricane?

But wait. The name of the Hurrican is Boonen...

(paying homage to an old Saturday Night Live skit)..

...LOL


1st....still undecided but I think we'll see a similar podium as last year...can Boonens luck hold....will George be pissed enough actually attack......
 

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I'm not inclined to make big predictions for this race. As saying goes, only the road knows and if that applies to any race it has to be this one.

I'll only say that at least one of these three in no particular order will be on the podium.

Boonen
Hincapie
Hoste
 

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I think that a break may stick for once. Teams will know that QS is strong and try and make them work from the gun. Expect to see lots of groups trying to escape and wear out the workers. Plus given the very poor showing by all the "local" teams not wearing QS script expect that some jobs are on the line at this point.

My pick- Ballan from a small group. Besides picking chalk all the time is boring. ;)
 

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I'm predicting unspoken

and unholy alliances to try to unseat the Tornado. If he wins fuhgeddabout it. If a guy coming off a WC year can maintain focus enough to dominate early wins, take his most beloved R-V-V and then can 'not celebrate' enough to take P-R everyone should just bow and kiss his feet. I'm not making any predictions until after Ghent Wevelgem where I will predict Tom will do some work to try to get a teammate the victory.QS has a huge chip as they didn't get near enough respect from the pro tour rankings so they are just going about winning most everything. Maybe Pozzato or Bettini in GW as this race suits them fine. I don't think Tom will go for it but if his confidence is high one never knows.

I'm hoping GH uses some of that aggression in P-R but again, due to injuries will be lacking some support (didn't hurt him last year though).

I thinkP-V-P will get caught out behind a crash like last year.
 

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Yo no fui.
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Hail Mary . . .

I'd love to see Van Petegem pull out one last victory (first in years) and ride off into the sunset . . . but I'm not holding my breath. He's older than the cobbles.

Moreover, with the confidence and power of Boonen, I can't see anyone dethroning him without some sort of horrendous bad luck. Even the possibility of an untimely crash seems unlikely if he's upfront and protected by several teammates.
 

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philippec said:
Race smarts and Hincapie are not intersecting sets.
So you are saying he married a podium girl because she was his intellectual equal as much as simply because he could? That's very touching and will certainly keep them in good stead beyond her usual sell by date.

P-R is hard to predict but the final km will almost certainly have QS all over them and Boonen is the one most suited to the course. I think it's more likely Hoste will ride Hincapie into the ditch a la Boonen than the other way around.

Dario Pieri is out but does VdB have a ride this year? I would like to see Boonen, Hoste and VdB on the podium. The king, the uppity young prince and the joker all on the podium would be pretty funny.
 

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Second verse same as the first...

Boonen, unless he gets sick or caught up in somthing out on the pave. He is the biggest thing going in cycling for certain.

the also rans will be Mr. Flecha and Van Petegem. Sadly I think that neither George nor Lief will be in the mix, mostly due to a hangover from last weeks debacle. I am sure George will be in the wrong spot at the right time and miss the move that creates the final selection.
 
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