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Are we going to start seeing a slowdown in peleton speeds this year after the Saiz bust?

I think everyone started getting the 'technology' that usps/dc was using by last year.

Lance knew he couldn't compete with a younger basso who has the same tech as he does.
 

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I doubt it. The average HCT at the Tour has dropped something like 4 points since Festina but the trend has been masked by easier courses, better road surfaces, and an increasingly international field boosting the talent pool and average speeds. The Giro which has a very Italian field and has gone the opposite direction on courses with hard climbs and unpaved roads already has some of the slowest speeds around.

Based on what has come out of Spain so far the drugs and techniques being used are not the sort that are going to produce dramatic or penalty free increases in performance anyway. Gene doping will change that but at the moment nothing will give you the penalty free increase in performance that jacking yourself over 60 HCT with EPO could.
 

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and we have a winner

of the new weekly 6 degrees of LA doping. Funny but this late bust had nothing to do with LA and USPS / Discovery and yet you've linked it. nice work.
where's the real link? and it predates USPS. Kelme and later Liberty Seguros, which means ONCE. Your whole premise is again based on USPS had better dope which is why they were somehow able to win one or 2 GT's, but not much else a year, lame but I'll send you a tinfoil helmet liner as a prize.

Man Hincapie must be a terrible rider, all those years of using the best dope in the biz and all he has to show for it is a Tour Stage, 3 Days of De Panne, a couple Dauphine Stages and Ghent Wevelgem. Guy should have swept every classic
 

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on a more serious note

don't look for peloton speed because parcourses change.instead watch 90's era TdF's and be amazed at the numbers of guys making it over the Cols
 

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atpjunkie said:
don't look for peloton speed because parcourses change.instead watch 90's era TdF's and be amazed at the numbers of guys making it over the Cols
I forgot about that - 40-50 guys going over the top in Virenque's day. Last couple years it's cut down to about 10. And guys could ride above their heads one day and be ok the next in the glory days of the 90's; now they pay for it. But I have to admit the racing was a little more exciting back then.
 

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glad you are old enough to recall

it was crazy, guys who were traditionally shelled on the first Col up there hanging with the leaders. It was when Lemond and Hampsten both said they knew something was up.
 

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Average speed (of the winner) from a historical perspective:

YEAR KMH MPH DIFF %
1903 25.679 15.954
1913 26.715 16.598 1.040
1923 24.233 15.056 0.907
1933 29.818 18.526 1.230
1947 31.412 19.516 1.053
1957 34.520 21.447 1.099
1967 34.756 21.594 1.007
1977 35.419 22.006 1.019
----------------------------------------------------------
1987 36.645 22.768 1.035
1989 37.487 23.291 1.023
1991 38.747 24.074 1.034
1993 38.709 24.050 0.999
1995 39.193 24.351 1.013
1997 39.230 24.374 1.001
1999 40.273 25.022 1.027
2001 40.020 24.864 0.994
2003 40.940 25.436 1.023
2005 41.654 25.880 1.017

Notice the increase in speeds from the old times (pre-1980) happened at about 1% to 1.1% every ten years (or so). (Also note that there were some missing WW2 years).

What's interesting is that in order to maintain the same approximate 1% speed increase, I needed to decrease the gaps between years from 10 years down to 2 from 1987 on.

So sometime around the 70s-80s, the speed increases accelerated.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons for this: Lighter bikes, increasing knowledge of Physiology and conditioning, "aero" technology, etc.

Discuss....
 
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