[PJay]

RBR TdF 2016 Predictions: post by start time 2016

Hello, everyone. Since we are all so smart about road racing, let's show it off: post your predictions before start time for the 2016 Tour de France. Talk is cheap. Can you call it a month before the final stage? A year?

At the end of the 2016 TdF, I will review how well we did. Historically, we have been pretty lousy, with some moments of brilliance.

Once the 2016 schedule is announced, I will note the deadline for posting predictions. Bon chance!

 

[PJay]

Yellow/Podium/GC: call first, or try first, second, or third
Green/points
Polka-Dot/climber
White/youth
Red/combatif
Team

Lantern Rouge
DNF
Brown/Douche
Honorable Mention

 

[PJay]

Yellow: LA

 

[PJay]

Bump. First day is July 2. I cannot yet find start time.

 

[KoroninK]

I think I'll wait for a start list before making predictions.

 

[LostViking]

Very tempted - but will wait a bit like KoroninK.

 

[Neolithic]

We can probably just go ahead and mark Sagan for the points jersey, though.

 

[BacDoc]

Watching the Dauphine was interesting, Froome and his team looked strong and they may have the best "program" of all the teams. Think Quintana will podium barring any crash or health issues. Astana has one of the better "programs" and Aru can be dangerous if he peaks for this race. I haven't seen any official roster but assuming Kittel is in he should dominate sprints. If Sagan is in I agree he will top the points. I like Contador but doubt the strength of his team and his ability to drop the field.

1st - Chris Froome
2nd - Nairo Quintana
3rd - Fabio Aru

Green Jersey - Sagan
Best tactical racing skills for stage win - Steve Cummings
Long shot that could crash everyone's party - Dan Martin

 

[gofast2wheeler]

1st place: Quintana
2nd: Froome
3rd: Pinot

Green Jersey: Kittel

 

[BCSaltchucker]

Yellow/Podium/GC: 1Froome 2Contador 3 Quintana
Green/points Sagan
Polka-Dot/climber Bardet
White/youth ???
Red/combatif Pinot
Team Sky

Lantern Rouge Greipel? lol who knows
DNF Kittel
Brown/Douche - LA
Honorable Mention - Porte

 

[JSR]

Based on today's Suisse results:
Sagan
Sagan
Sagan
not Sagan
Sagan
Sagan's team

 

[DrSmile]

I predict no one gets caught doping. Because they can't lose any more sponsors.

 

[AJL]

LOL, this thread was started at the end of last years tour - that there is some really proactive thinking.
Speaking of thinking, I will need to do some more before posting my expectations.

 

[gofast2wheeler]

Just reaffirming Quintana for Yellow Jersey. Just won Route du Sud. Right now no one can hang with him in the mountains if he is in form not even Froome. He also has improved his TT. I will go out and say he will win in record fashion surprising everyone. Contador's time has past, TJ will never win it he faults to much during high pressure situations, Froome doesn't have same team especially Porte who was instrumental in helping him win last year.

 

[PJay]

Just reaffirming Quintana for Yellow Jersey. Just won Route du Sud. Right now no one can hang with him in the mountains if he is in form not even Froome. He also has improved his TT. I will go out and say he will win in record fashion surprising everyone. Contador's time has past, TJ will never win it he faults to much during high pressure situations, Froome doesn't have same team especially Porte who was instrumental in helping him win last year.

This is persuasive, but I don't quite see how Contador's time has passed.

Last year, he rode well enough to be in top ten, and that was after GdItalia win.

 

[AJL]

This is persuasive, but I don't quite see how Contador's time has passed.

Last year, he rode well enough to be in top ten, and that was after GdItalia win.

It seems that Contador has lost some of his TTing ability and isn't quite as explosive on climbs. Perhaps if he had a team as good as Sky's, he would have a shot at the top step, but he doesn't. He needs to have good luck while Froome and Quintana , it seems to me, needs to have some bad luck, for Alberto to that the top step.

I would pick Contador to podium, but he doesn't seem interest in the podium unless it's for first place. What sayeth the board?

 

[juno]

Not sure on what Contador's form or team is like this year. He did look worn out last year. Can he podium? I doubt it, but if he can be aggressive like in the past it sure will make for some interesting racing!
I think it will be:
Quintana
Froome
Bardet
Sagan in green (Yep, call me Nostradamus!)
If Q can get an ounce of Contador's aggressiveness in the mountains, it is his to take.
Froome will be a target this year with everyone taking shots in the steeps. He doesn't have Porte to grind him up a mountain this year, in fact I think Richie will grind him out on at least one stage this year!
I think the Porte/TGV dynamic will be very interesting to watch!

 

[BacDoc]

It seems that Contador has lost some of his TTing ability and isn't quite as explosive on climbs. Perhaps if he had a team as good as Sky's, he would have a shot at the top step, but he doesn't. He needs to have good luck while Froome and Quintana , it seems to me, needs to have some bad luck, for Alberto to that the top step.

I would pick Contador to podium, but he doesn't seem interest in the podium unless it's for first place. What sayeth the board?

Didn't Alberto smoke everyone in the Dauphine TT?

I agree with you on his lack of explosiveness on the climbs but like you said he doesn't have Froome's team and he doesn't have their "Program".

Just read latest interview with Nairo and he seems like he really wants to win but talks about protecting himself from attacks by Froome and Contador. I doubt thats a winning strategy, but what do I know. Froome has the team to keep the pressure on and he attacks at the right time. Sky has the best "nutrition/supplementation program" so they get the gains but don't get caught - that's how you win a bike race, but what do I know.

 

[KoroninK]

Contador doesn't have a strong team again this year, yet he still "broke" Sky at the Dauphine. That would leave you to believe a stronger team like Movistar should be able to break Sky, thus isolating Froome more often this year. Quintana, obviously will have a strong team. Quintana's biggest issue may just be the fact that Movistar races exceptionally conservatively, which has worked in the past with their top riders over the years, Valverde is notoriously conservative in how he races, but he also has his sprint that he prefers to rely on to win stages and classics. Quintana can't race the same way, he has to be more aggresive. The Dynamic at BMC with Porte and VanGardern will be interesting to watch how that plays out. Two team leaders usually does not work, and BMC may be playing with fire on this one. Movistar has proben it can work, but it takes the right set of circumstances, with the right two riders, the right personalities, the right temperments, the right the differences in abilities and very possibly the right age differences as well. (I'll do actual predictions once the teams release their rosters for the Tour). (I'm more confident picking the podium for the Olympics without full rosters than anything with the Tour.)

 

[LostViking]

Okay, here goes:

Yellow/Podium/GC: call first, or try first, second, or third:
1) Froome
2) Quintana
3) Valverde

Green/points: Sagan

Polka-Dot/climber: Majka

White/youth: Holst Enger

Red/combatif: Contador

Team: Movistar

Lantern Rouge: Schleck

DNF: Cavendish

Brown/Douche: Sky

Honorable Mention: Porte