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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
RBR TdF 2019 Predictions! Post by Start Time 2019!

Hello, everyone. Since we are all so smart about road racing, let's show it off: post your predictions before start time for the 2019 Tour de France. Talk is cheap. Can you call it a month before the final stage? A year?

[In 2006, I reviewed whatever posts we had with any type of prediction, and noted how lousy we were. After that, I have done this "Predictions" post since 2007 TdF. If you do "advanced search" for "Predictions" and "Pjay" as the poster, you can see all of these.]

At the end of the 2019 TdF, I will review how well we did. Historically, we have been pretty lousy, with some moments of brilliance. Bon chance!

Call first, or try first, second, or third-
Yellow/Podium/GC:
Green/points:
Polka-Dot/climber:
White/youth:
Red/combatif:
Team:

Lantern Rouge:
DNF:
Brown/Douche:
Honorable Mention:
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
With Froome's Dauphine crash apparently putting him out of TdF, predictions for MJ are wide open.

I bet a lot of teams who have been evaluating what TdF table scraps to go for are now reconsidering a run for the MJ.

I hope Froome is OK, and heals up just fine.
 

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They may want to continue thinking about scraps. The defending champ is actually Geraint Thomas and he will be back with no questions surrounding leadership and the full support of guys like Bernal, Poels, Kwiatkowski, etc. Ineos will be tough to beat again I bet.
 

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Now playing the role of the naive guy that posts waaay too early before all of prediction analysis comes out and the tune up races have finished is Rashad....

My way too early guess at this is as follows

Winner- J Fuglsang ( yep, you read that right). He’s been on fire all season and I think it could all come together for him this year.

Other two podium spots- Bernal and Yates. I am going out on a limb and saying Thomas cracks or crashes at some point and Bernal takes over Ineos leadership. He almost beats Fuglsang too, but the Dane holds him off. Yates has his best grand tour yet. Also in the mix are Dumoulin and T Pogacar.

Mountains- Bernal regardless of what else happens.

Youth- tough one, but Pogacar

Team- Jumbo-Visma

Green- Viviani

Combative-Michael Woods or Alaphilippe

Not sure about the rest yet
 

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I hope Froome is OK, and heals up just fine.
Reports of femur break or possibly hip girdle. Everybody is just like "oh heal up fast!"
 

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Reports of femur break or possibly hip girdle. Everybody is just like "oh heal up fast!"
There’s a chance he may not be back this season to be honest. After an injury like that, it’s not just the healing, you also have to rebuild form. Doubt he will be ready by the Giro or for any of the remaining big races.
 

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My predictions that aren't part of the list predictions:

Craddock gets through the Tour without getting injured.

Valverde plays referee between Landa and Quintana again. (Not something your 39 year old team leader should be having to do.)

Porte will crash at some point during the Tour. If he's lucky he won't have to abandon.


I'll make category predictions once teams are finalized.
 

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Yellow/Podium/GC: Pinot, Uran, Mas
Green/points: Viviani
Polka-Dot/climber: Barguil
White/youth: Bernal
Red/combatif: Sagan
Team: Movistar

Lantern Rouge: Rowe
DNF: Porte
Brown/Douche: Moscon
Honorable Mention: Valverde plays referee between Landa and Quintana. Valverde, Alaphilippe, Bardet, and Fuglsang.
 

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I predict that TJVG will look pretty good early on, once again giving us all hope.

Then on one mountain stage he will proceed to lose 12 minutes to the faves.

Then he will be fine the rest of the way to Paris.
 

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I predict that TJVG will look pretty good early on, once again giving us all hope.

Then on one mountain stage he will proceed to lose 12 minutes to the faves.

Then he will be fine the rest of the way to Paris.

Likely. Although this year as he was out climbing Quintana at the Dauphine he may have started a little early with giving us hope.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Barring any catastrophe, such as massive mud slides, hail, brimstone, plagues of locusts, or riots, Sunday should be the grand promenade along the Champs!

This sure has been a different sort of TdF! Missing the obvious spoiler to injury, and dominated not by Skye until the very end, but dominated by a time trialist whose team cleverly saw the opening for this opportunity via the unique combo of Days 2 and 3. And the French have had a comrade in yellow all month! Many have been pleased with the mix of stage profiles - even without pave or Zydur Zee. This has made 2019 TdF a great race to follow. But hard to predict!

Assuming no major upsets on the final day, once this uphill time trial concludes, I will review predictions and see how well all of us Armchair Directeurs have done! I will review pre-race predictions on this thread. Also, a couple predictions came off of discussion from this pre-race thread:
https://forums.roadbikereview.com/p...n%E9-race-thread-spoilers-allowed-368309.html
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Predictions Success!
Gets Podium #1 correct!
gofasttwowheeler: Yellow: Bernal

Gets Team Correct!
KoroninK: Team: Movistar


Close But No Cigar!
gofasttwowheeler: Green: Viviani [was 2nd]
Rashadabd: Green- Viviani [was 2nd]
KoroninK: Green/points: Viviani [was 2nd]

Rashadabd: Winner- J Fuglsang ( yep, you read that right). He’s been on fire all season and I think it could all come together for him this year. Other two podium spots- Bernal and Yates. [Bernal is 1st]

Rashadabd: Ineos will be tough to beat again I bet. [2nd place team]

El Scorcho: I predict that TJVG will look pretty good early on, once again giving us all hope. Then on one mountain stage he will proceed to lose 12 minutes to the faves. Then he will be fine the rest of the way to Paris. [TJVG dropped out after Stage 7, with hand injured by crash]



Honorable Mention:
KoroninK: Porte will crash at some point during the Tour. If he's lucky he won't have to abandon. [Porte did crash, Stage 11, and carried on.]



Thanks for playing! This has been my 13th year of hosting the RBR TdF Predictions Page - we aren't getting any better, but I hope we are at least having fun! Let's all try again next year!
https://forums.roadbikereview.com/p...ctions-submit-15-00-gmt-07-07-07-a-99763.html
 

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Good stuff lol. I was way off on Fuglsang, but Bernal and Viviani were solid picks.
 
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I'm a winner for picking yellow, yippy.

Well, I think this is going to be the start of something special with Bernal. I heard he matched Nairo pace up the mountain stage he won. Feel bad for Nairo he should have been Colombias first winner if he had a better team to compete with. If he was on Sky when he started he would have won all ready. Interesting for 2020 Froome, Thomas, Bernal. Looks like they will dominate for the foreseeable future. It would be awesome if Froome left or Thomas to another team because of Bernal. Now that would be great racing for the Tour.
 

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I'm a winner for picking yellow, yippy.

Well, I think this is going to be the start of something special with Bernal. I heard he matched Nairo pace up the mountain stage he won. Feel bad for Nairo he should have been Colombias first winner if he had a better team to compete with. If he was on Sky when he started he would have won all ready. Interesting for 2020 Froome, Thomas, Bernal. Looks like they will dominate for the foreseeable future. It would be awesome if Froome left or Thomas to another team because of Bernal. Now that would be great racing for the Tour.
They recently re-signed Thomas and Froome I believe, so they aren’t going anywhere soon. They will also now have this year’s Giro winner Carapaz. They signed him between the Giro and Tour. It’s pretty ridiculous how much talent they have at this point. Jumbo Visma may be able to mount a serious challenge if they truly sign Dumoulin as rumored. They would have a pretty deep GC team as well if that happens.

I agree that Bernal could be a contender for another decade or more.
 
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