[pmf]

That's what people said about 5 speed.
And what they said about 6 speed....
And what they said about 7 speed....

But you're in luck... you can buy brand new Shimano R2000 which is 8speed. And it's way better than your 1990's 8 speed.

That was supposed to be a joke. Maybe you should head back to The Circle.

 

[ljvb]

I have 11sp DI2.. and unless I can use the existing stuff, I am not upgrading.... as previously noted, since they are all digital, and the servo steps on the RD and FD are tiny, there is no need to replace them to support 12sp, just change the digital indexing.. Since my bike came with it and is already wired, wireless is not relevant.. and that would apply to any bike already wired. nice to have for new installation upgrades.. but otherwise not worth it to me.

 

[SystemShock]

I think its a mistake to go all-electronic on both Dura Ace and Ultegra. Ultegra has always been Shimano's bang for the buck group. Now its $2400. I guess they'll be selling a lot of 105?

+1. Expected them to do it on DA, but not Ultegra as well. Now Ultegra’s expensive. 😕

There’s GRX… but it’s not 12-spd. And has a worse (wider) Q-factor.

 

[jta]

I am assuming/hoping that Shimano will release a 12-speed 105 groupset as a mechanical version that will cater to the recreational road and race crowd, with Ultegra and Dura-Ace cross-compatibility for non-electronic components like brake calipers/rotors, cassettes, cranksets, etc. This will allow for a really nice mechanical 12-speed build with options to upgrade. I don't think Shimano will simply walk away from its market dominance in mechanical components.

Edit: This also makes sense from a business and user standpoint. Having two versions (mechanical and electronic) for both Ultegra and Dura-Ace is redundant, confusing and expensive. Offering DA and Ultegra as electronic only and then releasing 105 12-speed as a mechanical group will eliminate complexity and clarify Shimano's line-up. I think the logic is that 105 will benefit from the trickle down technology of mechanical DA and it will meet or surpass the needs of cyclists in this demographic. I could be wrong of course, but I bet 105 12-speed gets released as part of the regular cycle in 6 months to a year.

 

[Grog McCog]

When I first got Ultegra 11-speed with hydraulic brakes in 2014, it was only available with Di2 (so I reluctantly did that -- zero regrets). Presumably they still have the option of offering 12-speed with mechanical shifting in the future, should there be any demand for it. On the other hand, 12-speed might simply have tolerances that demand the perfection of shifting that Di2 enables.

 

[SystemShock]

…Presumably they still have the option of offering 12-speed with mechanical shifting in the future, should there be any demand for it. On the other hand, 12-speed might simply have tolerances that demand the perfection of shifting that Di2 enables.

Oh sure… which is why Campy’s had 12-speed mechanical for over 3 years now. 🤷‍♂️

 

[shwndh]

Wait! I was just about about to upgrade my 3x8 drivetrain. I don't need to do anything now?

 

[upstateSC-rider]

Wait! I was just about about to upgrade my 3x8 drivetrain. I don't need to do anything now?

Nope, 3x8=24 and 2x12=24 so it would be a lateral move, you're good.

 

[SystemShock]

I could be wrong of course, but I bet 105 12-speed [mechanical] gets released as part of the regular cycle in 6 months to a year.

I hope you’re right. 🤞🏼

 

[jta]

I hope you’re right. 🤞🏼

Me too. And yes, I did mean 105 mechanical, thanks for clarifying. The new groupsets look amazing, but I wouldn't want to see ALL good road bikes become so technologically complex that a person of limited means could not afford one, or be at a huge competitive disadvantage in racing. 105 will probably fill the niche that Ultegra previously occupied. Once people get used to the new tiers, it will probably make a lot more sense.

 

[froze]

No more Shamano Ultegra or DA mechanical, then I will no longer buy anything from Shamano, there are other companies that are just as good like SRAM, Campy, and even now Microshift is starting to come on strong and probably in 5 to 8 years Microshift will probably be equal to SRAM. So if I need to replace one my Ultegra items I'll just switch to another manufacture. All good things must come to an end like it did with Suntour, so maybe Shamano will go into the pages of history as well due to them pissing off their client base...one can only hope.

 

[Finx]

I would be willing to bet your most expensive bike that there will be a mechanical version of Ultegra 8100, and possibly even the Dura Ace 9200. These will likely appear once the initial demand for the Di2 upgrades and new bikes has begun to dwindle. Early adopters who want the latest and greatest will probably jump to the new Ultegra. People who are willing to wait a year or so will probably be rewarded with mechanical options from 105 up to Ultegra for sure, and possibly even at Dura Ace level.

I have one rim brake bike left in my stable. It's in need of a component refresh. I was planning a mix of 11 speed Ultegra/Dura Ace components, but am now pondering just abandoning the project altogether in favor of another shiney new 12 speed bike . This is partly due to the fact that I don't want to invest in new rim brake wheel upgrades, and partly due to the fact that i can go with the newer kit for the same or less money than the 11 speed (assuming I buy new, which I probably would).

I figure I can probably sell the mechanical components and possibly even the frame to rim brake die hards. =)

 

[jta]

Finx, definitely a plausible scenario that Shimano could release mechanical 12-speed Ultegra and DA. The reason I thought they may eliminate mechanical from the top tiers was redundancy. It costs a fortune to manufacture and market multiple, complex product lines with only minor differences in quality. If Shimano leverages DA and Ultegra tech for 12-speed 105 mechanical, development costs are kept to a minimum. Whatever the outcome, I think Shimano will offer a 12-speed mechanical group that will be good. Call it Ultegra or 105, it will only be the name that's different.

 

[Lombard]

Well this may be Shimano's solution to the cable eating shifter problem. Eliminate mechanical shifting.

 

[PBL450]

Finx, definitely a plausible scenario that Shimano could release mechanical 12-speed Ultegra and DA. The reason I thought they may eliminate mechanical from the top tiers was redundancy. It costs a fortune to manufacture and market multiple, complex product lines with only minor differences in quality. If Shimano leverages DA and Ultegra tech for 12-speed 105 mechanical, development costs are kept to a minimum. Whatever the outcome, I think Shimano will offer a 12-speed mechanical group that will be good. Call it Ultegra or 105, it will only be the name that's different.

And the weight.... The weight will always matter.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[jta]

And the weight.... The weight will always matter.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The weight difference will only be theoretical, since neither Ultegra or 105 12-speed mechanical exists (yet). You can develop the 12-speed 105 line to be on par in weight as the previous Ultegra 8000. With each release cycle, the differences between DA, Ultegra and 105 become smaller and smaller, with weight being the biggest differentiator. If you eliminate that distinction, there is no rational sense in keeping so many product lines. The difference then is strictly psychological – it really doesn't make a difference what badge is on your components at that point. People assume that a new 105 group would be inferior, but it will probably rival Ultegra 8000 in terms of performance and weight. In that case, ride it and enjoy.

Case in point: An ex-pro (and Ollie) having a difficult time telling the difference between DA 9100 and 105 7000 back in 2018 and touting the quality of 105. The difference between 105 and Ultegra is even less significant:

 

[SystemShock]

No more Shamano Ultegra or DA mechanical, then I will no longer buy anything from Shamano

I’ve said it before, but I can’t emphasize enough how much I think no 12-speed mechanical Ultegra, at the least, is premature/obnoxious/a mistake. 😕

12-spd 105 mech might be coming next year (maybe but who knows), and even 12-spd Ultegra mech could possibly eventually be released (though I doubt it). But this is still a royal diss to mech customers.

Problem is, if you want 12-spd mech road, the only significant alternative right now is Campy… and many ppl who’ve existed happily in Shimano/SRAM world have a fear of switching to Campyland, for whatever reason.

So, it’d be nice if SRAM undercut Shimano by releasing a 12-speed mech road group well before they did.

Now that might hit Shimano in the pocketbook, and make them sit up and pay attention. 📢

 

[velodog]

Shimano doesn't rule out 12-speed mechanical road groupsets | road.cc

 

[froze]

Shimano doesn't rule out 12-speed mechanical road groupsets | road.cc

Did you read that article? It says that it will make only 105 as their top of the line mechanical components. Mechanical Ultegra will seize to exist after 2022 maybe 2023. Which means that if 105 will be the top of the line mechanical groupset it will no longer take advantage of trickle down technology from DA and Ultegra. And I have a sneaky thought that eventually 105 mechanical will go electric and they'll stop 105 mechanical as well leaving us with Tiagra.

We need to be very vocal to Shamano about their plans to eliminate mechanical DA and Ultegra, if they get enough E-mails telling them to keep the mechanical DA and Ultegra stuff they could change their minds. But as far as I'm concern I see this as a move by Shamano to try make more money by forcing us to buy batteries every 3 years at $150 dollars a pop, instead of making no money on a sale of a DA or Ultegra component package over the life of the components. And the long term life expectancy of Di2 system as a whole is only 8 to 10 years, so now you have an absolutely serviceable frame but will need to replace the entire Di2 system at HUGE cost. Like I said before this all about churning money out of our pockets into theirs constantly just as appliance companies have been doing for years (just one example), so shareholders can make money.

The only thing that story does mention is that Shamano could release a new line of mechanical derailleurs, but that only comes from the editor, it does not come from Shamano. Shamano is cagey about future release stuff, so time will tell what they'll do, but I seriously believe that if we do not take a stand and bomb them with emails requesting that they keep DA and Ultegra as mechanical they will indeed seize manufacturing of mechanical DA and Ultegra because they'll see it as there isn't enough interest from buyers to keep the mechanical stuff. So I believe it's up to us to make some noise as to what Shamano will do.

 

[Lombard]

Did you read that article? It says that it will make only 105 as their top of the line mechanical components. Mechanical Ultegra will seize to exist after 2022 maybe 2023. Which means that if 105 will be the top of the line mechanical groupset it will no longer take advantage of trickle down technology from DA and Ultegra. And I have a sneaky thought that eventually 105 mechanical will go electric and they'll stop 105 mechanical as well leaving us with Tiagra.

We need to be very vocal to Shamano about their plans to eliminate mechanical DA and Ultegra, if they get enough E-mails telling them to keep the mechanical DA and Ultegra stuff they could change their minds. But as far as I'm concern I see this as a move by Shamano to try make more money by forcing us to buy batteries every 3 years at $150 dollars a pop, instead of making no money on a sale of a DA or Ultegra component package over the life of the components. And the long term life expectancy of Di2 system as a whole is only 8 to 10 years, so now you have an absolutely serviceable frame but will need to replace the entire Di2 system at HUGE cost. Like I said before this all about churning money out of our pockets into theirs constantly just as appliance companies have been doing for years (just one example), so shareholders can make money.

The only thing that story does mention is that Shamano could release a new line of mechanical derailleurs, but that only comes from the editor, it does not come from Shamano. Shamano is cagey about future release stuff, so time will tell what they'll do, but I seriously believe that if we do not take a stand and bomb them with emails requesting that they keep DA and Ultegra as mechanical they will indeed seize manufacturing of mechanical DA and Ultegra because they'll see it as there isn't enough interest from buyers to keep the mechanical stuff. So I believe it's up to us to make some noise as to what Shamano will do.

Good luck with that.