So, if the TdF isn't a climb-fest this yr, could Floyd pull off a win?
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With an in form Basso or Ullrich I have a hard time seeing how Landis could win; but with the difficulty of this year's Giro, Basso might come into the Tour a bit flat. Ullrich could easily crash, suffer a knee injury, etc. Maybe Ullrich is past it. Landis has raised his game, so he would definitely be one of the favorites if Basso or Ullrich were not in contention.
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Landis has a shot
I wouldn't give the dude even odds or anything, but barring some freakish breakaway with a notable rider in it... I think he could hang there. TTers that can climb seem to have been the standard on the podium in Paris the past few years.
Landis is a tough rider and could likely throw down in the TTs and just hang on the climbs. Remember he worked his butt off for Lance and almost pulled off a stage win. He has shown he can make the cut and marked Danielson nicely at Bald, and showed hes got some legs against some decent enough competition at home, but where will he be in his fitness? Thats a peculiar question. It seems he has been racing a TON of stage races, perhaps its good. Granted...
Tour of Cali and Georgia are not the Tour de France... but decent training... yes. And Danielson is not Basso... so... with that being said... I can hardly wait.
I wouldn't give the dude even odds or anything, but barring some freakish breakaway with a notable rider in it... I think he could hang there. TTers that can climb seem to have been the standard on the podium in Paris the past few years.
Landis is a tough rider and could likely throw down in the TTs and just hang on the climbs. Remember he worked his butt off for Lance and almost pulled off a stage win. He has shown he can make the cut and marked Danielson nicely at Bald, and showed hes got some legs against some decent enough competition at home, but where will he be in his fitness? Thats a peculiar question. It seems he has been racing a TON of stage races, perhaps its good. Granted...
Tour of Cali and Georgia are not the Tour de France... but decent training... yes. And Danielson is not Basso... so... with that being said... I can hardly wait.
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Landis may have a reasonably talented team to help out as well this year. Too bad the course is not a little more interesting with it being a much more open field. It is a good thing the riders/teams might make the race interesting this year.
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Right now I would give him the same odds as Ullrich. We already know Jan will not be in form for the Tour since he doesn't have the base to avoid a bad patch at some point and will likely encounter some more health problems on the way from trying to flog himself into shape in a short time span.
I don't think you really have any idea what you're talking about.terzo rene said:
Jan Ullrich came to camp (Africa) in November and has been training ever since. He carried less weight than previous years and he is training with with his team mates unlike previous years.
The big issue is the knee problem that arose 6 weeks ago. It prevented any serious training for 4 weeks. I believe this knee issue is pivotal in the TDF and the build-up to the TDF.
Hey, knock Jan if you want too but pleaaase have some relevant info to back it up.
francois
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Le Tour 2006 - Overall winner
Who will win the Tour de France ?
No refunds on non-starters. Others on request.
Basso, I 2.85
Ullrich, J 3.00
Vinokourov, A 8.50
Valverde, A 9.00
Popovych, Y 20.00
Cunego, D 25.00
Menchov, D 25.00
Leipheimer, L 25.00
Landis, F 30.00
Mancebo Pérez, F 30.00
Klöden, A 35.00
Hincapie, G 40.00
Rasmussen, M 45.00
Mayo, I 50.00
Beloki, J 66.00
Simoni, G 80.00
Jaksche, J 100.00
Who will win the Tour de France ?
No refunds on non-starters. Others on request.
Basso, I 2.85
Ullrich, J 3.00
Vinokourov, A 8.50
Valverde, A 9.00
Popovych, Y 20.00
Cunego, D 25.00
Menchov, D 25.00
Leipheimer, L 25.00
Landis, F 30.00
Mancebo Pérez, F 30.00
Klöden, A 35.00
Hincapie, G 40.00
Rasmussen, M 45.00
Mayo, I 50.00
Beloki, J 66.00
Simoni, G 80.00
Jaksche, J 100.00
Can I bet against someone? I'd like to bet Beloki won't win. If I bet $66, do I win $1? I'll take that.capt_phun said:
They favor Leipheimer over Landis. Ain't gonna happen...
francois
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3,065 Posts
It's a dangerous bet with Beloki. I agree he won't win, but 66 to 1 is a bit dangerous for my taste. Beloki is an unknown, with potential to win. This kind of bet is safe with Rasmussen (or Hincapie).francois said:
Hincapie with higher odds than Mayo, Simoni or Beloki?
What are they smoking?
And what is Jaksche doing on the list?
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well in the new cycling
they have 5 routes of the pros. Floyd's is a run up Mt. Palomar (where I think he holds the unofficial record) nearly a century from where he starts with a 17 mile 5000 ft climb. Final 7 miles of Alpe d'Huez switchbacks. No wonder he's climbing as well as he is.
they have 5 routes of the pros. Floyd's is a run up Mt. Palomar (where I think he holds the unofficial record) nearly a century from where he starts with a 17 mile 5000 ft climb. Final 7 miles of Alpe d'Huez switchbacks. No wonder he's climbing as well as he is.
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I guess you must not either since you are agreeing with me. A month off of serious training at this point, whatever the reason, means he won't have the high base needed to achieve and hold maximum fitness by July.francois said:
I also agree Levi over Landis is nuts. Floyd is really being overlooked at 30:1 when Valverde is at 9:1. Menchov over Mancebo doesn't seem right either. Mancebo may look like his chamois creme has tabasco sauce and fire ants in it but he is always consistently highly placed.
Hincapie whom I normally dismiss as much as anyone really should be picked over Simoni, Beloki, and Mayo. The course favors him as much as anyone and his power apparently hasn't suffered from his weight loss which will help him in the mountains. Simoni has already said his main goal is an Alpe d'Huez stage win and domestique duties for Marchante. The other 2 will be an accomplishment to even finish in the top 20.
Floyd is not being overlooked, he is being overrated.
Who, of notable talet, has he beaten in an ITT?
No one.
If you think that he can do a better ITT than Ulrich, Basso, Vino, or hell even GH (when he wants to) you're drunk. Wow, he beat Danielson by 4 sec in Georgia. Good for him, next time pick on someone your own size and prove your worth. Come the end of July he'll be between 7th and 11th.
And enough about Jan not having the fitness!
Take a look at the pics from yesterdays prologue, he's hardly fat. And if you would have watched the coverage on cycling.tv you would know that he was taking it easy on the corners, of which there was many. When the road was pointing straight, he was FLYING. Then look at the risks that Savoldelli and Valverde took on some of those same corners. Both of them almost went into the bariers more than once. And I'm pretty sure that Savoldelli clipped his pedal on one of the barriers. Jan was taking it easy there and he easily lost 5 seconds on the hairpin corner alone, possibly more.
Who, of notable talet, has he beaten in an ITT?
No one.
If you think that he can do a better ITT than Ulrich, Basso, Vino, or hell even GH (when he wants to) you're drunk. Wow, he beat Danielson by 4 sec in Georgia. Good for him, next time pick on someone your own size and prove your worth. Come the end of July he'll be between 7th and 11th.
And enough about Jan not having the fitness!
Take a look at the pics from yesterdays prologue, he's hardly fat. And if you would have watched the coverage on cycling.tv you would know that he was taking it easy on the corners, of which there was many. When the road was pointing straight, he was FLYING. Then look at the risks that Savoldelli and Valverde took on some of those same corners. Both of them almost went into the bariers more than once. And I'm pretty sure that Savoldelli clipped his pedal on one of the barriers. Jan was taking it easy there and he easily lost 5 seconds on the hairpin corner alone, possibly more.
"We already know Jan will not be in form for the Tour since he doesn't have the base to avoid a bad patch at some point"
This is what I had a problem with. How do we already know he's not going to be ready?? How do we know there's going to be a bad patch? Anyway, what I'm pointing out is Jan has been training well since November. And even with the knee injury, he was on the bike 4 hours a day to preserve his fitness base. Not sure if you knew that.
A lot will be revealed in Romandie and Giro and the run-up to the tour. He looks fine right now. Let's see what he can make of it.
francois
This is what I had a problem with. How do we already know he's not going to be ready?? How do we know there's going to be a bad patch? Anyway, what I'm pointing out is Jan has been training well since November. And even with the knee injury, he was on the bike 4 hours a day to preserve his fitness base. Not sure if you knew that.
A lot will be revealed in Romandie and Giro and the run-up to the tour. He looks fine right now. Let's see what he can make of it.
Great comments here!! Wholeheartedly agree. I love watching Mancebo. He looks like the hunchback of Notre Dame but he gets up the hills.terzo rene said:
francois
Agree 100% on the Ullrich comments! He looks fine. Let's wait and see.mtbbmet said:
I don't think Floyd is being overrated. Not yet at least. No one is really picking him to win the TDF. Most people don't even have him in their Top 5.
He is however gaining a lot of fans and he is gathering votes for top american hopeful. Hope is good.
His ITT possibilities are interesting. Past year stats are not that great. Heck in the Tour of California this year, when he rolled in, the announcers didn't even care. They didn't have his time since time since he's just Floyd. It's only a few moments later that they realized he blew everyone away by at least 30 seconds.
He's got the new 'flying squirrel' TT position and it's the wildcard. I believe in it. I think it's going to shake things up.
francois
You are talking out of your A$$.
DZ has the most naturally aero position in the Pro Tour. He would not change that. Also, DZ has been a little bit overrated in the last year also. DZ is far from the best time trailer in the world. Yes, he is very good. And most days, much better than Landis. But far from the best. In last years prologue luck, along with talent, played a huge role. He went early, with a stonger tail wind than the others had. Other than that, he has one exactly one other big TT. But he took less than 20sec out of Basso, and 45sec out of Savoldelli. And Savodelli is not really considered an impressive TTer. Like DZ, he's good, but not the best.
DZ has the most naturally aero position in the Pro Tour. He would not change that. Also, DZ has been a little bit overrated in the last year also. DZ is far from the best time trailer in the world. Yes, he is very good. And most days, much better than Landis. But far from the best. In last years prologue luck, along with talent, played a huge role. He went early, with a stonger tail wind than the others had. Other than that, he has one exactly one other big TT. But he took less than 20sec out of Basso, and 45sec out of Savoldelli. And Savodelli is not really considered an impressive TTer. Like DZ, he's good, but not the best.
No I'm not talking out of my a$$, I'm quoting DZ. "Quotablemtbbmet said:
David Zabriskie, who is now in the chase group, had this to say yesterday on his ride in the time trial and what he thinks of Floyd Landis’ unorthodox position. “I thought I was [good today], but Floyd has been very fast all year, and continues to go fast, so I think I’ll try those bars now. I’m slowly being converted to Floyd’s position.” And how he’d rate his performance in the stage 3 time trial. “Probably about a four,” Zabriskie said. “I’m hard on myself.”
You ask "Who, of notable talet, has he beaten in an ITT?" DZ is considered on of the best ITT by multply of sources.
Now who talking of his/her a$$?
Someone's butt-cheeks are moving. DaveZ said it himself after the Tour de Georgia TT stage.mtbbmet said:
Floyd's position will take time to use and copy. He puts his elbows together and that makes controlling the bike umm-hard.
francois
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