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It all comes down to this. Well, not really. There is still the small matter of the ITT, and ,to a lesser extent, the final two sprint stages. But this is what could decide the podium. Sorta.
This tour has been anything but the expected, so making a prediction for this stage is rather tough. What can be said is there will most certainly be attacks. If the top four riders get away, we could possibly see one of the most dramitc fights in quite some time.
There are two keys to this stage: how your body responds to a rest day, and who gets the most help the longest. The riders will go Cat4, Sprint, Cat1, lunch, Cat1, Sprint, HC (Col du Tourmalet) summit finish. It's not just the Maillot Jaune on the line, either. This is the last day for the Polka Dots, and that race is close. We also have the points race. Thor has it, Cavs wants it, and Petacchi had it, lost it, had it again, and is under Italian questioning. Thor has proven he can climb, so I expect to see him make a go at the first sprint, but the next sprint is two Cat1's later.
The Mountains Classification will be quite the battle, but probably peter out after the Second Cat1. This leave the GC race.
I fully expect to see Saxo Bank with at least three men around Andy until halfway up the second Cat1. Cancellar will be pushing the pace up and down the first Cat1. Jens will be in charge of getting Schleck up the second Cat1. He will need someone to follow down the descent, and that will be the tricky part. He may make a pact with SSanchez to attack up that climb so he can follow his wheel on the backside and distance himself from Contador. This would be risky as SSanchez could get more time on Schleck, and I don't know how good SSanchez is at time trialing. Nor have I seen how technical that route is.
So, I'm gonna lay all that aside and say Contador takes the stage, :45 over Schleck. Not sure if SSanchez or Menchov will cross before Andy.
Oh, and everyone will wonder why we doubted Astana's power. Vino and two others will get Contador safely to the base of the Tourmalet. And it'll be game over, man.
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This tour has been anything but the expected, so making a prediction for this stage is rather tough. What can be said is there will most certainly be attacks. If the top four riders get away, we could possibly see one of the most dramitc fights in quite some time.
There are two keys to this stage: how your body responds to a rest day, and who gets the most help the longest. The riders will go Cat4, Sprint, Cat1, lunch, Cat1, Sprint, HC (Col du Tourmalet) summit finish. It's not just the Maillot Jaune on the line, either. This is the last day for the Polka Dots, and that race is close. We also have the points race. Thor has it, Cavs wants it, and Petacchi had it, lost it, had it again, and is under Italian questioning. Thor has proven he can climb, so I expect to see him make a go at the first sprint, but the next sprint is two Cat1's later.
The Mountains Classification will be quite the battle, but probably peter out after the Second Cat1. This leave the GC race.
I fully expect to see Saxo Bank with at least three men around Andy until halfway up the second Cat1. Cancellar will be pushing the pace up and down the first Cat1. Jens will be in charge of getting Schleck up the second Cat1. He will need someone to follow down the descent, and that will be the tricky part. He may make a pact with SSanchez to attack up that climb so he can follow his wheel on the backside and distance himself from Contador. This would be risky as SSanchez could get more time on Schleck, and I don't know how good SSanchez is at time trialing. Nor have I seen how technical that route is.
So, I'm gonna lay all that aside and say Contador takes the stage, :45 over Schleck. Not sure if SSanchez or Menchov will cross before Andy.
Oh, and everyone will wonder why we doubted Astana's power. Vino and two others will get Contador safely to the base of the Tourmalet. And it'll be game over, man.
