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Slightly Opinionated
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
What do you think we'll be seeing in the alps?

It seems like it would be a bad idea to try and put Schleck in yellow tomorrow and have to defend it through the rest of the alps, but he really needs time on Evans if he wants to win this. Same thing with VdV and Garmin in the way that I don't think they have the strength to defend the jersey all the way through.

Maybe CSC pushes Sastre tomorrow to try and move him up, Rabobank pushes Menchov into the jersey?
 

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I think we'll see Frank Schleck attacking at some point, he needs major time to compensate for that last long time trial. If he doesn't do it sooner, it will probably be on Alpe D' Huez. I'd like to see Schleck win, he would have to do it with mountain attacks which are much more interesting than Evan's style.
 

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I can't wait to see what happens... especially Stage 17 on Wednesday, with 3 huge climbs and a up finish, wow...

If Carlos Sastre wants to make up time this will be his last chance.. and don't forget Menchov or Kohl as well. I'll be pulling for CVV though, he finished 21st in today's stage, so he still has the legs, hopefully by Wednesday he will too.
 

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It's going to be one giant wheelsuck tomorrow. CSC will probably try to break some legs, but none of the favorites has that extra ability to accelerate and drop eveyone. Whoever has a bad day, loses! Routing for VDV, but watch for Menchov, he's a smart rider.
 

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i agree with susanwalker that tomorrow will likely be more of a grind, with only stagehunters doing sharp attacks. I'd like to see some aggressive riding, but I don't think 7% is beneficial to the mountaingoats attacking too much.
tomorrow WILL certainly show who the real contenders are. If Schleck, Evans, Sastre, VdV, Menchov, or Kohl have a bad day they're done. It should be a nervous stage.
 

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Albert Owen
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Don't write off Valverde just yet, he's looking happy and full of beans again. The Caisse D'Epargne boys were showing again today.
Whatever happens, it seems that Evans will have to win it on his own, Lotto don't look that strong to my eyes.
 

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What offseason?
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Susan Walker said:
Especially considering the final climb is only 7% average, not enough to make a serious difference, probably.
Now that's just silly :) 7% is steep, even for these guys. Tomorrow may not be decisive compared to Alpe d'Huez, but it won't be because of the relative tameness of the finish climb - it'll be because there are 110km between the Col d'Agnel and the base of the Prato Nevoso.

If a GC contender wants to animate the race on a finish climb, the climb doesn't have to be that steep to see big time differences and Prato Nevoso is steeper than most traditional finish climbs in the alps.
 

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With this talk of Evans possibly asking for help in the Alps does anyone else see the possibility of a strong team with a slightly removed leader (maybe Caisse with Valverde) helping him out in return for another Green Bullet stage win? Should be interesting to see if Cadel can make anything to protect him from the CSC juggernaut
 

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the rest day may mean the riders go out a little harder, yet i think the real deal will be alpe d'huez.

schleck won on alpe d'huez in 2006 yet he wasn't a marked rider then.

whilst evans may loose yellow to schleck, menchov or vande velde i'm not sure anyone will earn enough time to keep evans out of yellow after the ITT as this years route is similar to last years.

so what's happened to popovych?!?!
 

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I feel like Cancellara is a great weapon for CSC considering what he can do on the flats. He should try and get into breakaways because Evans would probably have to chase him back.

VDV will have to attack at some point, but he's in a better position than Schleck or Sastre because he has a much stronger TT
 

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Iwannapodiumgirl said:
whilst evans may loose yellow to schleck, menchov or vande velde i'm not sure anyone will earn enough time to keep evans out of yellow after the ITT as this years route is similar to last years.
I don't see Evans losing any significant time to Menchov or VDV in the mountains. He might lose some on Schleck, Sastre or even Kohl, Cunego or Valverde if he has a bad day in the Alps, but I just can't see him losing enough to any of them. Evans will be in the yellow after the ITT, even if he loses it in the Alps.
 

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this tour is over unless Evans cracks and has a bad day. There just aren't enough hard Mt. stages. Really one two (stage 10 and 17). Others will have to get huge chunks of time since Evans will make it back up on the last ITT.
 

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CSC doesn't just need the jersey after Monday, they need 3-4 minutes on the Evans/Menchov/VdV trio to have a legitimate hope of holding on to it.

I expect to see Arvesen/Cancellara/Voigt in an early break, ready to shepherd F Schleck/Sastre down the Aspin and across the flat. At Porte Nevoso, it's on, with repeated attack/counterattack from Sastre/Schleck if they are both still in contact.

On Monday, the younger Schleck will try to break early, and be available for his teammates at the base of d'Huez.

Flecha (for Menchov) and Lowe or Millar ( for VdV) may try a similar tactic.

Finally, don't overlook the fact that Gerolsteiner has a rider in 4th, a superlative climber in Kohl, and a rider to mark in Schumacher ready to spend.
 

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Slightly Opinionated
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Discussion Starter · #17 · (Edited)
Bad day for Peirero. Fractures in femur and somewhere in the shoulder after going over a guardrail coming off the Agnel. Too bad, that's a rough way to leave a race.

Edit: Velonews rocks...

Well, we also hope that the video wasn't of high enough quality so that we'll be seeing it in the advertising on a certain television network, interspersed with shots of bull riding and bald tattooed guys beating each other up.
 

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It's in the game!
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Menchov

stevesbike said:
this tour is over unless Evans cracks and has a bad day. There just aren't enough hard Mt. stages. Really one two (stage 10 and 17). Others will have to get huge chunks of time since Evans will make it back up on the last ITT.
After today we see that Menchov can put time on Cadel Tues and Weds and can TT quite well.
 
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