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Bianchi Nuovo Alloro, Lemond Etape
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TdF '21 Discussion Thread Stage 13 Jul09 SPOILER ALERT

This is a 130-mile flat stage. There are a few climber points at 30 miles. Mid-way sprinter points are at 60 miles.

The route spans the land along the Gulf of Lyon, just northwest of the Mediterranean. There could be a cross-wind, a "mistral" wind, for some of this route. A long fast route with crosswinds = echelons! The final couple of miles include a couple turns, but the end of the route seems fairly tame.

This is a typical sprinter stage. The contest for climber points is pretty hot, so the first quarter may go pretty fast, with teams fighting for climber point position. And then teams switching focus pretty quickly to look at sprinter points, where the contest is equally hot. A non-threatening breakaway will not be allowed to get away until after that point. Then, a large one may form. However, it may not be allowed to get too far ahead. There are sprinters who want some glory. Cavendish may eye this prize. Sagan has not won anything this tour so far. Alaphillipe seems to be fighting for something. Etc.

So, I don't expect a breakaway to survive. Not even a solo or duo. I could be wrong. What we could see is someone jumping at an opportunity that opens if there are winds / echelons. As I write this note, 2 days before, the forecast says the wind will not be coming off the Med, and is not forecast to be strong.
 

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Cavendish isn't fit to sniff Eddy Merckx's chamios, and if he tried, he'd need a leadout to get there.
 
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