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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
...those here planning coronation services for Valverde in the Tour have to cancel their plans. A Valverde in raging form losing ~1 minute in 20 klicks to a not so world class time trialist like Evans does not bode well for this year in France. With this year's course profile, he maybe does not have quite a 0% chance, but it's not much better than that.
 

· classiquesklassieker
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Unusual route -> hard to judge.

Under ACrookedSky said:
...those here planning coronation services for Valverde in the Tour have to cancel their plans. A Valverde in raging form losing ~1 minute in 20 klicks to a not so world class time trialist like Evans does not bode well for this year in France. With this year's course profile, he maybe does not have quite a 0% chance, but it's not much better than that.
The Lausanne ITT is on an unusual route. I have done that route before. It goes down some straight descent, then twists around down to the Olympic center. Then some flat across past Ouchy, back around, up rue de Ouchy which is straight and about 8% average. The kicker is la rue de Petit-Chene, which is narrow, damn steep, and cobbled to boot. From there it's twisting up and around until rue de Valentin, and then back up to the stadium. The rue de Petit-Chene climb would not be out of place in Gent-Wevelgem.

The town of Lausanne is built literally against a cliff, so there's a lot of elevation changes. To make it more interesting, the middle of the city is cut by an old river called the river Flon. So the route is really, really unusual for an ITT. It is really easy to lose time in this ITT. I would say that Valverde didn't do so hot, but until I get a more accurate point-by-point comparison of his performance at different checkmarks, it's hard to judge. I would even say that this route is more suited to Prologue specialists with decent climbing skills.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
With the 2006 Tour having three TTs including the prologue, maybe it's "Uh, oh x 3". Or with 116 km of time trialing, maybe it's "Uh, oh x 5.8".
 

· Former Roadbikereview Editor
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orange_julius said:
The Lausanne ITT is on an unusual route. I have done that route before. It goes down some straight descent, then twists around down to the Olympic center. Then some flat across past Ouchy, back around, up rue de Ouchy which is straight and about 8% average. The kicker is la rue de Petit-Chene, which is narrow, damn steep, and cobbled to boot. From there it's twisting up and around until rue de Valentin, and then back up to the stadium. The rue de Petit-Chene climb would not be out of place in Gent-Wevelgem.

The town of Lausanne is built literally against a cliff, so there's a lot of elevation changes. To make it more interesting, the middle of the city is cut by an old river called the river Flon. So the route is really, really unusual for an ITT. It is really easy to lose time in this ITT. I would say that Valverde didn't do so hot, but until I get a more accurate point-by-point comparison of his performance at different checkmarks, it's hard to judge. I would even say that this route is more suited to Prologue specialists with decent climbing skills.

This TT should have been ideal for Valverde. It has elevation changes with a long uphill finish. And it was about 15 minutes long. The only ITT Valverde has done well in was an uphill ITT in the Vuelta a couple of years ago (he placed second).

So, this was not a good showing. Maybe his form and motivation were not good today. Maybe he sucks on the Time trial bike.

The prologue was interesting. Valverde didn't use a time trial bike and he just railed the corners and sprinted out of corners. He did very well. But then, it was only four minutes long.

At this point, if I had to guess on an hour long flat ITT... he would lose badly.

francois
 

· classiquesklassieker
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francois said:
This TT should have been ideal for Valverde. It has elevation changes with a long uphill finish. And it was about 15 minutes long. The only ITT Valverde has done well in was an uphill ITT in the Vuelta a couple of years ago (he placed second).

So, this was not a good showing. Maybe his form and motivation were not good today. Maybe he sucks on the Time trial bike.

The prologue was interesting. Valverde didn't use a time trial bike and he just railed the corners and sprinted out of corners. He did very well. But then, it was only four minutes long.

At this point, if I had to guess on an hour long flat ITT... he would lose badly.

francois
Francois, I don't agree that this ITT was ideal for Valverde. He does not ride cobbles and it features in the parcours of this ITT. Plus, it is hard to find a rhythm on the course. Even in some of the "flat" portions, there are scattered cobbled sections, such as near the Musee Olympic.

So it does imply that Valverde will also suck in a long, flat, non-cobbled ITT. Look at the guys who did well in this one, the mix is different from what one would expect from a "usual ITT course".
 

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Valverde is pretty much on form right now

and losing a minute to Cadel (who's no awesome TTer and still building) in 20K is a pretty good indicator that Valverde isn't a monster TTer. Many great racer's aren't. They need the motivation of people around them to battle against. The mental construct of going at a mad physical rate on your own is a rare and special talent.
 
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