Road Bike, Cycling Forums banner
1 - 20 of 25 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
234 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Every race I have seen of him, including his TdF stage win, has been impressive. This leaves out all of the races that I haven't seen, in which he might not have been so great, but let's not confuse the issue.

Do we seriously think that he and the team have the goods to compete this year @ the TdF? My initial thought is that he and his squad may not have the durability/resolve to win this year, but at least AlVal seems to have the skills to be considered in the same sentence with about 6 or 7 other potentials.

Your thoughts/what am I missing?
 

·
Not Banned
Joined
·
49,013 Posts
well he's showing promise

and I'm so behind this kid. but
he needs to finish a GT first
we need to see his TT skills
 

·
Cannot bench own weight
Joined
·
4,267 Posts
I just posted these thoughts in the LBL thread, however i'll say the same here:

This year the TdF belongs to Basso. Sure Valverde appears to have great potential, however while he might be able to hang with Basso in the hills, he surely can't TT with the new and improved Basso.

And Ullrich is too old now to hang on in the hills.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
446 Posts
Needs to finish a GT first?

atpjunkie said:
and I'm so behind this kid. but
he needs to finish a GT first
we need to see his TT skills
Needs to finish a GT first? How about on the podium in the 2003 Vuelta?

As for TdF this year, it's not a course for him. His TT skilz aren't there yet for a TdF, especially considering this year's course. But in the mountains he ought to be fun to watch!
 

·
Former Roadbikereview Editor
Steelman Eurocross bike
Joined
·
2,977 Posts
I believe, the future of cycling is bright because we have budding superstars like Valverde, Cunego and Boonen.

Valverde will be top 5 in the 2006 TDF. He can win but not likely. The main reason is the course. As good as the course is for Jan Ullrich (2 long ITTs and only 3 uphill finishes), that spells disaster for Valverde. However, if Jan is a no go, Valverde will vie for the top spot. Basso and Landis are my other picks btw.

On any uphill finish, Valverde can possibly gain seconds to a couple minutes on his rivals. On any ITT, Valverde can lose 1 to 3 minutes on his rivals.

The Giro on the other hand has an uphill ITT and 7 uphill finishes. Such a course would favor Valverde.

The other things working against him are his youth and team. Both are unproven. On the other hand, Valverde is a cool, calculating winner. He has the nickname 'the invincible' because in his youth, he won almost every race he entered.

a couple of interviews:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/apr06/flechewallonne06/?id=/riders/2006/interviews/valverde_fleche

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/apr06/lbl06/?id=/riders/2006/interviews/valverde_liege06

francois
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,065 Posts
francois said:
I believe, the future of cycling is bright because we have budding superstars like Valverde, Cunego and Boonen.

Valverde will be top 5 in the 2006 TDF. He can win but not likely. The main reason is the course. As good as the course is for Jan Ullrich (2 long ITTs and only 3 uphill finishes), that spells disaster for Valverde. However, Jan is a no go, Valverde will vie for the top spot.

On any uphill finish, Valverde can possibly gain seconds to a couple minutes on his rivals. On any ITT, Valverde can lose 1 to 3 minutes on his rivals.

The Giro on the other hand has an uphill ITT and 7 uphill finishes. Such a course would favor Valverde.

The other things working against him are his youth and team. Both are unproven. On the other hand, Valverde is a cool, calculating winner. He has the nickname 'the invincible' because in his youth, he won almost every race he entered.

a couple of interviews:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/apr06/flechewallonne06/?id=/riders/2006/interviews/valverde_fleche

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/apr06/lbl06/?id=/riders/2006/interviews/valverde_liege06

francois
Agree with francois/atpjunkie.

Valverde is impressive primarily because he can sprint and climb well - not many people can do both at his level.
However, sprinting at the end of mountain stage doesn't count for much in a grand tour. Strong ITT skills, race experience and savviness and strong team mean a lot more, and these are Valverde's weak points.

I do think he can finish in top 5, but not threaten for the win.
 

·
scruffy nerf herder
Joined
·
4,484 Posts
"He has the nickname 'the invincible' because in his youth, he won almost every race he entered."

Same could be said for George Hincapie...
 

·
Not Banned
Joined
·
49,013 Posts
corrected

forgot about the 03 Vuelta podium. still Vuelta doth not equal TdF and actually better suits his race style. He's got potential don't get me wrong but I think he's a better shot at becomong the next great classics monster.
 

·
Self-Banned
Joined
·
16,905 Posts
Einstruzende said:
I just posted these thoughts in the LBL thread, however i'll say the same here:

This year the TdF belongs to Basso. Sure Valverde appears to have great potential, however while he might be able to hang with Basso in the hills, he surely can't TT with the new and improved Basso.

And Ullrich is too old now to hang on in the hills.

I agree even though he's going for the Giro I think he's the best bet this year.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,627 Posts
atpjunkie said:
forgot about the 03 Vuelta podium. still Vuelta doth not equal TdF and actually better suits his race style. He's got potential don't get me wrong but I think he's a better shot at becomong the next great classics monster.
you think he might be more like Jalabert? I could see him definitely winning a Giro or Vuelta in the future, in fact would bet on it, but the formalized structure that the Tour follows year in and year out, I think would always work against him.
 

·
pass the hot sauce
Joined
·
196 Posts
Einstruzende said:
...however while he might be able to hang with Basso in the hills, he surely can't TT with the new and improved Basso.
Don't get me wrong: I am a fan of both Basso and Valverde, but Basso got dropped on the stage to Courchevel last year and lost 1:02 to Valverde. I think Valverde should be able to hang just fine. ;)
 

·
Not Banned
Joined
·
49,013 Posts
yes I see Valverde

as a total Jalabert style rider. I see him pulling a Giro or Vuelta with some dazzling attacks and taking a list of classics and semi classics. I just need to see his TT skills develop before I'll call him a tour fave. the day he went with LA, we'llnever know becuase of the injury but such an effort may have cost him 10 minutes in the following days.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,065 Posts
mquetel said:
Don't get me wrong: I am a fan of both Basso and Valverde, but Basso got dropped on the stage to Courchevel last year and lost 1:02 to Valverde. I think Valverde should be able to hang just fine. ;)
Yeah, but in all fairness, even after taking 1:02 from Basso, Valverde was still behind Basso overall. And he promptly dropped out.

He may be the star of the future, but he lacks super-strong team support that Basso has, and has yet to prove himself as a solid time trialist.

I think Valverde is more the type of Bettini, rather than Jalabert - a sprinter who can climb. Interestingly, Cunego is not bad at sprint either.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,348 Posts
atpjunkie said:
the day he went with LA, we'llnever know becuase of the injury but such an effort may have cost him 10 minutes in the following days.
Good point. This is a curse that haunts many people with all of the necessary GC tools. Even with an ability to TT and climb, can they put it all together without a bad day? I see him as top 5 this year, likely 4 or 5. I won't declare him a future winner unless I see he is consistent.
 

·
Yo no fui.
Joined
·
8,081 Posts
Wishful thinking.

Few things would be better for the future of cycling than for Cunego to re-establish himself with a win at the Giro and Valverde to (shockingly) pull the Tour out of his culo. They could then go head to head in an epic time trial battle at the world championship race, the likes of which would not have been seen since I finished a close second in a a drag race in my '81 Mazda 323 against a very strong '78 Tercel.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
608 Posts
This year his chance of winning: 0% (Does not time trial well enough.)

Next year if the course has more climbing he might have a shot. His chances will take a serious downturn if Basso wins this year's Giro; he might be satisfied with not defending his title in 2007 and just concentrating on the Tour, especially if Ullrich wins this year.

The year after that he'll get crushed by Thomas Dekker.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,561 Posts
Under ACrookedSky said:
This year his chance of winning: 0% (Does not time trial well enough.)
No way. There are probably about 170-180 guys in the race with essentially a 0% chance of winning (and even some of them have a exceedingly small shot at pulling off a Voeckler type of advantage and then holding on). Valverde can climb well enough to at least be in the running for the podium and he's not that bad of a TTer. He might not be a big favorite but to say 0% is unrealistic, maybe somewhere around 10-20% of winning it, 30-40% chance of making the podium.
 
1 - 20 of 25 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top