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I have the Nashbar one that expands. It has held up to daily commuting 5 days a week since February here in Minnesota, and the rain cover does work well. The actual trunk rack is also coated on the inside, and the one time I didn't stop in the rain to put the cover on, my stuff still stayed dry.

I don't know about long-term durability, but mine is holding up well so far. The one thing I don't like about it is that the flap that covers the zipper is a little tight, and you have to peel it up to unzip the main compartment. Then again, it appears waterproof without the cover, so it's hard to complain.
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