Heras? Great? buahahahaha. he couldn't keep up at the TdF till his got his supply for the Vuelta.wilier said:Salvodelli might attack and sacrifice themselves. With the absence of the great climbers like Basso and Heras, I'm not sure I see anyone this year GC contenders who can really fly up the mountain and ditch the field.
While I agree with your overall analysis, I wonder why you singled out Hincapie and Savoldelli as the mst likely to hang in the mountains? I would have picked Popo and Azevedo instead. I like Hincapie, but as I keep repeating, people overestimate his climbing ability. Easy to say "all he has to do is hang with the leaders" - but when was he able to do that, ever? The mountain-top finish last year was really impressive, but he had a 19-minute lead on the main pack, and they closed almost all of it by the end - just to put it in perspective. I just cannot see Hincapie hanging with the lead group through three alpine stages - he will lose at least a couple of minutes there to guys like Landis or Evans. For example, Hincapie lost 3 min and 4 min to Landis on two real mountain stages in Dauphine.wilier said:Play it just like he says he is. He actually probably has a team lead in mind - they may even have announced it amongst themselves.
However, seeing who comes out of the time trials and first mountain stages in the best position is a good tactic.
Once they get to the mountains, We're probably looking at a couple teams trying to take command (I'm thinking Phonak). Therefore it will be entirely possible that the 4 guys you mentioned (I think Hincapie and Salvodelli are most likely) can just hang with the bunch waiting for something to happen. It's not like Johann has to deploy 5 guys out front to protect his key riders. George and Paolo are strong enough to be there when it counts.
Attack, sit-on, counter-attack up every col......with GH, Salvo and Popo being the main threats and Acevedo riding support.....with three legit guys that's what I would do, make everyone else stick their nose in the wind for a changeCoot72 said:What would you do?
I singled out those 2 (george and Salvo) simply because I don't know enough about Popo and Azevedo to know if they will be in contention for the Disco lead spot after the time trials. Sounds like everyone thinks Popo can time trial though.55x11 said:I would have picked Popo and Azevedo instead. I like Hincapie, but as I keep repeating, people overestimate his climbing ability.
But I can see Popo or Azevedo breaking away in the mountain stages and gaining a couple of minutes to compensate for TT difference.
I'll stick with my comment. Heras was great. It's a dissappointment he could not deal with the pressure of team lead in the Tour, but he was one of the great climbers.bas said:Heras? Great? buahahahaha. he couldn't keep up at the TdF till his got his supply for the Vuelta.
Agreed. Floyd does have a real chance - he can time trial better than any disco boys and he can outclimb most of them too.wilier said:I singled out those 2 (george and Salvo) simply because I don't know enough about Popo and Azevedo to know if they will be in contention for the Disco lead spot after the time trials. Sounds like everyone thinks Popo can time trial though.
To be honest, I think Floyd has a real chance at winning the whole thing, but this post was about Disco, not Phonak.