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IDK man. Anything is possible and I know weight plays a significant factor. Two things that I just learned:

1. The 2nd place finisher of the mens U23 ITT averaged 394W/400NP 48 minutes.
2. While sitting on a very accomplished pro's wheel Tuesday for about 20 minutes I did 280/290 avg/np at 160lbs while my buddy behind me the entire time said he did 405 np at 190-ish lbs. So 30lbs and 115W more! Both of us using Quarq. I think the U23 guy does as well. Is the calibration accurate enough? No idea.

I'd echo the advise above and just do solid training, eat sensibly and see where the numbers fall every so often. I can't tell you how many times I've beat guys who say they have significantly higher FTPs than me but, that 27th time we needed to surge and pushed some relatively high power they got gapped and were off the back. Obviously, in training for a higher FTP you will get better at being able to repeat efforts but, just saying a high absolute FTP isn't the one thing that predicts a result.
 
I'm confused why you would bring a once-in-a-lifetime genetic phenom like Brandon McNulty into this.

If OP had just a pinky full of McNulty's talent he'd already be close to 400. Doesn't matter the powermeter. That dude was lapping p12 fields MULTIPLE times solo as a 17-18 year old.
Because if a "genetic phenom" can't do 400 for 48min and finish 2nd at worlds maybe 400 is a bit high for the context of this thread. But like I said anything is possible.

edit. To be honest I don't know his weight. Again for a normal joe in the context of the thread (reducing weight by the amount he wants to and increase power by that amount) is a big ask. But I'm not really qualified to say which is why I said anything is possible. Was not trying to be discouraging. Thread title is "realistic FTP goals...or not" after all.
 
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