[Xydadx3]

Had I not noticed it on the radar the day before, I might have headed out for my bike ride that morning.

A good tropical system makes great KOM weather if you're not in a rain band!

 

[duriel]

OK, I'm listening, U guys want me to tell you weather the weather is going to rain for U today or tomorrow? ... all you have to do is ask. ... nicely.

 

[Lombard]

OK, I'm listening, U guys want me to tell you weather the weather is going to rain for U today or tomorrow? ... all you have to do is ask. ... nicely.

Beer....it isn't just for breakfast anymore. 🙄

Now back on topic.

 

[jta]

When "future radar" started to become a thing on my go-to weather channel app it was a paid-only feature. I did a trial to check it out and canceled the trial early because of it. If they can't make a forecast accurate a few hours out, how could they possibly expect to have an accurate future radar map? Unfortunately it trickled down to non-paid accounts and I ended up deleting the app for a while. Its sad how I tried every other weather app I could find and still ended up back with the weather channel app. Thankfully the future radar has now been turned off by default.
Up until recently I've found the traditional 1-2hr of radar loop helpful. Seeing where a storm is and which way its headed gives me a good idea what to expect. Except now it seems like they turn the sensitivity up or down to suit whatever they're trying to accomplish, which makes the radar practically useless.
I just went outside. The sun is coming up and there are barely any clouds so that's what I'm basing my intentions to ride back to work from the tire shop on.

Some guys started a thread a while back on the topic of best weather apps and sites for checking the weather. The Weather Channel site's radar has been pretty wonky on both my mobile and desktop devices to the point it's rendered useless. This seems to be a back-end coding issue. I use TWC, Weather Underground and Apple weather. It might be a good idea to start a new thread on this topic as we're all pretty reliant on getting good/accurate weather forecasts.

 

[Lombard]

Some guys started a thread a while back on the topic of best weather apps and sites for checking the weather. The Weather Channel site's radar has been pretty wonky on both my mobile and desktop devices to the point it's rendered useless. This seems to be a back-end coding issue. I use TWC, Weather Underground and Apple weather. It might be a good idea to start a new thread on this topic as we're all pretty reliant on getting good/accurate weather forecasts.

I've always said there are two jobs where you can be wrong more than half the time and still keep your job.

1) Meteorologist
2) Stock analyst

But seriously, weather radar is useful even if flawed in some ways. It only shows upper atmosphere disturbance. If the air is so saturated that there is constant mist and drizzle, radar won't necessarily show this. On the other hand, if the relative humidity is very low at ground level, precipitation can actually evaporate before it gets all the way to the earth's surface.

There is also the issue that weather fronts can change direction without notice. And it is very difficult to predict these changes. Recently there were severe t-storm warnings where I live, but those severe storms shifted south and nothing fell here. Snow storms are an excellent example of this issue. And often there are computer models that contradict each other. There is a very good reason for probability of precipitation percentages. Anything other than 0% or 100% they're not absolutely sure about. Most fair weather days have abou 10% POP. I genrrally cancel club bike rides if the POP is 40% or more.

 

[bvber]

I've always said there are two jobs where you can be wrong more than half the time and still keep your job.

Maybe not for long? "Woman sued weatherman and won... "

 

[RHankey]

I've always said there are two jobs where you can be wrong more than half the time and still keep your job.

1) Meteorologist
2) Stock analyst

But seriously, weather radar is useful even if flawed in some ways. It only shows upper atmosphere disturbance. If the air is so saturated that there is constant mist and drizzle, radar won't necessarily show this. On the other hand, if the relative humidity is very low at ground level, precipitation can actually evaporate before it gets all the way to the earth's surface.

There is also the issue that weather fronts can change direction without notice. And it is very difficult to predict these changes. Recently there were severe t-storm warnings where I live, but those severe storms shifted south and nothing fell here. Snow storms are an excellent example of this issue. And often there are computer models that contradict each other. There is a very good reason for probability of precipitation percentages. Anything other than 0% or 100% they're not absolutely sure about. Most fair weather days have abou 10% POP. I genrrally cancel club bike rides if the POP is 40% or more.

If I cancelled rides where I live when the POP>=40%, there would be very few days through the summer months that would be "safe" to ride. As an example, our present 10-day daily outlook shows POP's between 50-80% for every day. I betcha I can ride every single one of those days with no risk of getting wet. POP at a day level is almost meaningless around here. We can get storms on days when POP=0%. We sometimes won't get anything even when POP=100%. The majority of summer days have a POP>=40%, and thunderstorms can roll in or form out of nowhere quickly any day, most commonly in the afternoons. The hourly POP for the current day can be even more whacky. The reality is that from Mar to Oct inclusive, there is seldom a day I need to lose to rain, unless I'm looking for an excuse for a rest day. Riding in afternoons through the summer can be risky any day. I'll delay or cancel rides if I need anything more than a jacket for warmth. I'll delay or cancel many more rides between Nov-Feb if I need more than a jacket for warmth - no point riding in the cold, as waiting a few hours or to the next day, and I can ride in nicer temps. The moving radar is all I will trust for determining the risk of getting wet on a ride. I won't start a ride if I think I'm going to get wet and I usually won't start a ride if the roads are still soaked (and definitely not in the winter), but I'll ride through whatever weather I encounter once I've started the ride, be it rain, snow, sleet, hail, lightning, etc. There's seldom anywhere I can pull off to sit out a storm when I do get caught. It's the storms that form out of nowhere that usually catch me, and those ones can be some of the worst. I haven't been caught in a storm on the bike in at least a couple years. I haven't been quite so lucky on the motorbike, despite a similar desire to avoid heading out if I think I could get wet.

 

[RHankey]

I've always said there are two jobs where you can be wrong more than half the time and still keep your job.

1) Meteorologist
2) Stock analyst

There's no need to be batting at <50%. Where I grew up in the Pacific North/West, you could do better than 50% by assuming today and onward was the same as yesterday. You'd only be wrong when the weatherfront changed. When it socks in up there, it can rain for 2 or more weeks at a time. And many days, it's a mixed bag of sun, cloud and a risk of rain. Down in the South/East where I reside these days, you'd be right most of the time simply forecasting generally sunny, and in the summer months modifying that to sunny with a risk of thunderstorms. No meteorology degrees, blond die jobs, silicone implants or skimpy dressed required.

 

[jta]

There's no need to be batting at <50%. Where I grew up in the Pacific North/West, you could do better than 50% by assuming today and onward was the same as yesterday. You'd only be wrong when the weatherfront changed. When it socks in up there, it can rain for 2 or more weeks at a time. And many days, it's a mixed bag of sun, cloud and a risk of rain. Down in the South/East where I reside these days, you'd be right most of the time simply forecasting generally sunny, and in the summer months modifying that to sunny with a risk of thunderstorms. No meteorology degrees, blond die jobs, silicone implants or skimpy dressed required.

I believe all the guys commenting are on the East Coast, where the weather is humid. It's been Hellishly muggy in the Northeast the past few years. Hotter air has the capacity to carry more moisture and more moisture means more volatility in the weather. It's possible that this could tip the accuracy of forecasts enough to be perceptible, or we could just be more attuned to the weather as cyclists that have a lot more data at our disposal so that smaller discrepancies might be more noticeable.

"WTF, I just wanted to know if my derailleur cage was short or long." – OkiRider, probably

 

[bvber]

It's been Hellishly muggy in the Northeast the past few years.

More like past few hundred years.

 

[Lombard]

There is an old saying in New England, if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.

 

[jta]

More like past few hundred years.

The past two to three springs have been more humid and rainier than normal as a matter of record where I live. Weather forecasting technology has improved vastly in the recent past, so it's possible we've just become accustomed to a higher standard of accuracy that may not be sustainable in all situations.

Pretty sure the weather on the East coast has been muggy for a lot longer than a few centuries.

 

[Xydadx3]

I have spent the majority of the last 2+ hours setting up for a work picnic outside because there’s only a 5% chance of rain before 2pm.
I literally just used a leaf blower to get rid of puddles in the area.

It just started raining. Fml

 

[bvber]

There is an old saying in New England, if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.

That's what my friend in Virginia Beach said about their weather.

 

[Lombard]

Pretty sure the weather on the East coast has been muggy for a lot longer than a few centuries.

This may be true. What is also true is that night time temperature lows aren't as low as they used to be. In the northeast, average night time lows have increased around 6 degrees since 1970 even as averahe daytime highs have changed less than 2 degrees.

 

[Xydadx3]

That's what my friend in Virginia Beach said about their weather.

I'm right next door. Its true.

This may be true. What is also true is that night time temperature lows aren't as low as they used to be. In the northeast, average night time lows have increased around 6 degrees since 1970 even as average daytime highs have changed less than 2 degrees.

Just my personal observation in a limited time period. In spring here the temperature regularly swings 30+ degrees from night to day. Summer and winter its 20 degrees or less. There's no good way to prep yourself for a 30+ degree change!

 

[jta]

I have spent the majority of the last 2+ hours setting up for a work picnic outside because there’s only a 5% chance of rain before 2pm.
I literally just used a leaf blower to get rid of puddles in the area.

It just started raining. Fml

Shit, that sucks. TWC forecasts in my area are usually not that wildly inaccurate – only on rare occasssions. It's been frustrating the past few years trying to find windows of clear weather to ride, to the point that it put a dent in my overall mileage. If there's precipitation in the area, I usually consult a few apps. If the forecasts are similar, it's usually pretty solid. If they're different and changing rapidly, it's a dice roll. I haven't been able to determine if one service is more accurate. I find Apple Weather and Weather Underground radar to be far more usable.

When I'm out in California, no such issues. I glance at the forecast and I'm out the door.

 

[Lombard]

I'm right next door. Its true.


Just my personal observation in a limited time period. In spring here the temperature regularly swings 30+ degrees from night to day. Summer and winter its 20 degrees or less. There's no good way to prep yourself for a 30+ degree change!

That's pretty much here too. Typical of a continental climate vs. a maritime climate where you have the ocean nearby to moderate temps.

 

[bvber]

if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.

That's what my friend in Virginia Beach said about their weather.

I'm right next door. Its true.

Another friend who lives in Miami Beach said the same. There's plagiarism going on somewhere. 🤨

 

[jta]

I'm right next door. Its true.


Just my personal observation in a limited time period. In spring here the temperature regularly swings 30+ degrees from night to day. Summer and winter its 20 degrees or less. There's no good way to prep yourself for a 30+ degree change!

Seen and noted on Weather Underground tonight. Thankfully there's no wind chill but I'm thinking of throwing on a sweater.