[nicks2192]

hes not horrible in the mountains though and as you have seen this year he has his sprinters legs too and no boonen to have to beat out.

 

[hayduke1972]

Everyone has the wrong Schleck in the top 10...it will be lil' bro Andy. But Sastre is their top guy and a top 5 finisher. Valverde has shown nothing in previous TDF's to believe he can win the overall. He's never even sniffed the podium!

1. Evans
2. Menchov
3. Sastre
4. Valverde
5. Cunego

Dark Horse...Kim Kirchen

 

[teffisk]

Sivtsov for polka dot?

 

[Raceoftruth]

Couple of things, first of all it's nice that no ones started whining about how the contenders this year are nowhere near the league of Armstrong, Ullrich, Basso, Vino etc. like they have been the last few years. Is it possible that we've finally got over the Lance withdrawl we had in '06 and (to a lesser extent) '07? Hopefully.

Also, the riders many of you mention have practically no record of consistency over a grand tour. Valverde? Had a great ride at Courchevel in '05 but hasn't had the same level as that at any stage since. Besides, his sprinting ability takes away from his TTing and climbing. Will go ok at Cholet but lose out at Hautacam and on the Bonette-Restefond.

Cunego? Same, good year in 2004 but hasn't been the same since the mono. Stage win and top 10.

Schlecks? Frank is inconsistent and Andy is unproven at this level. The Giro isn't the Tour and he has questioable dedication. Besides, Riis runs a tight ship and will have all the men working for Sastre.

Evans is the man to beat, consistent in the climbs, great at day-to-day recovery and knows his limitations. He'll conserve energy and make big inroads in the final TT. The only question mark is his team and whether or not they will be able to cope if Cunego, Valverde, or even someone like Ricco decide to attack early. He will probably habe to rely on CSC to help out with the Med riders.

Tough to pick a top 5 because of crashes, scandals etc. but likely winners would be:

1) Evans
2) Sastre
3) Menchov
4) Valverde

Cunego, Zubeldia, Ricco, Schlecks, Sanchez, Kreuzinger and Devolder would have to have a lucky breakaway to be a chance.

 

[uzziefly]

Stijn Devolder has a shot to get into the top 5, well, top 10 for sure.

Schleck (Frank) ain't a top GC rider and like what einstruzende said, I don't see him having a shot other than perhaps in the top 10 or if he somehow gets into a break, then the top 5 perhaps.

 

[teffisk]

Cunego? Same, good year in 2004 but hasn't been the same since the mono. Stage win and top 10.

Cunego may not be at his Giro winning form, but he may be. He has been riding great tho and I think he will have some serious guns to fire in Le Tour.

 

[The Weasel]

Any favs outside of these obvious contenders. Ricardo Ricco? Soler? Lovkvist?
Some young climber that will be an unknown til he wins a pair of mt stages this season?

I am somewhat new to this, but I am going to go with Popovych. He's shown that he can climb and attack on his own. He shows that fire.
Menchov and Valverde will crack again in the mountains.

 

[tron]

I was just checking the start lists. No Karpets for Valverde and no Gesink for Menchov.

It will be interesting to see what Pate can do. He seems amazingly talented and has relegated tt specialist Millar to 3rd or 4th best on his team in that discipline.

 

[Guest]

Cunego may not be at his Giro winning form, but he may be. He has been riding great tho and I think he will have some serious guns to fire in Le Tour.

I have a 'feeling' the Cunego was holding back in the Tour de Suisse, so I put him in my top three, but I could easily be wrong. We'll see when what his real form is when the road reaches up to the sky. Valverde wasn't holding back - he was looking for the psychological benefit of a win, IMHO.

 

[karatemom]

First of all, I'd like to mention that I picked Contador for last year's tour during last years prediction thread. So, my picks are one of the Schleks (I think maybe Frank), maybe Cunego, and I like Tyler Farrar, for no good reason. Maybe top 10 for him.

 

[harlond]

First of all, I'd like to mention that I picked Contador for last year's tour during last years prediction thread. So, my picks are one of the Schleks (I think maybe Frank), maybe Cunego, and I like Tyler Farrar, for no good reason. Maybe top 10 for him.

Farrar is not on the start list, is he?

 

[Einstruzende]

I am somewhat new to this, but I am going to go with Popovych. He's shown that he can climb and attack on his own. He shows that fire.
Menchov and Valverde will crack again in the mountains.

Crazy talk for two reasons:
Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender!

Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.

 

[harlond]

Crazy talk for two reasons:
Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender!

Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.

I agree with you, but then there is Cunego/Simoni 2004, and Ullrich/Riis 1997. Still, I agree with you, because while I like Popo, I'm not sure he's on the level of Cunego, much less Ullrich.

 

[karatemom]

Farrar is not on the start list, is he?

Hmmm..you appear to be right. I thought he was, but I guess not. This doesn't really bode well for my Tour predictions in general. Okay, I'll go with Cunego. Maybe Menchov.

 

[The Weasel]

Crazy talk for two reasons:
Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender!

Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.

I did think of that, but I just don't believe Evans is the #1 contender. Obviously he's Silence-Lotto's GC guy, but even though he's moved up in places, I still think #1 eludes him. Popo was 8th(?) last year, and if Cadel struggles (which I think he will-pressure will get the best of him), Popo is now the guy. I think he'll be riding strong the whole tour, so that if the situation arises, he can do it. Remember, I was replying to a post thatsaid go outside the regular top picks. Last year Levi wound up having to ride for Alverto, even if it was only for a couple stages at the end.

 

[harlond]

I did think of that, but I just don't believe Evans is the #1 contender. Obviously he's Silence-Lotto's GC guy, but even though he's moved up in places, I still think #1 eludes him. Popo was 8th(?) last year, and if Cadel struggles (which I think he will-pressure will get the best of him), Popo is now the guy. I think he'll be riding strong the whole tour, so that if the situation arises, he can do it. Remember, I was replying to a post thatsaid go outside the regular top picks. Last year Levi wound up having to ride for Alverto, even if it was only for a couple stages at the end.

I'm a Popo fan, but he didn't exactly show himself to be immune from pressure for Discovery the year after LA retired. He had a chance to assert himself on GC that year and he didn't do it. I'm no fan of the whinger Evans, but he's pretty good at avoiding the bad day.

 

[danielc]

I'm sorry but has valverde finished a tour yet? I thought he was always caught up with bad luck.

 

[slowdave]

I'm sorry but has valverde finished a tour yet? I thought he was always caught up with bad luck.

6th in 2006 or was it 07.

 

[Richard]

I have to go with Valverde. His time trialing has improved significantly and he can climb with the best of them.

Now if he just doesn't fall off his bike.

 

[Run1stBike2nd]

Evans
Sastre
Menchov

I'd go with Valverde, but I predict that he'll crash out. I'll actually be pulling for Cunego, but he can't TT well enough.